ISLAMABAD: Since the suspension of Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) through Pakistan, the Interim Taliban government has been striving to reroute trade more through Iran’s ports and the planned air‑cargo links to India, but the redirection comes at a steep cost.
Pakistani business leaders, meanwhile, have taken the closure of borders with Afghanistan as a blessing in disguise for local industry and a blow against smuggling.
The Afghan Transit Trade through Pakistan has been facing intermittent suspensions over the years. In 2024, it was briefly suspended due to security concerns but restored after a ceasefire. The latest suspension followed unprovoked aggression by Afghan forces against Pakistan last month.
While briefly restored during subsequent talks, the corridor was suspended indefinitely after negotiations collapsed. Pakistan has linked any restoration of ATT to verifiable assurances that Afghan territory will not be used against Pakistan by terrorist groups, making security and sovereignty the overriding considerations.
Sharp Decline Of Late
According to official data, the total Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) value fell to about US$754 million in the first eight months of fiscal 2024–25 — from roughly US$2.243 billion in the same period a year earlier.
Forward cargo (imports into Afghanistan via Pakistan) plunged from US$2,197 million to US$729 million, while reverse cargo (exports from Afghanistan) dropped from US$46 million to around US$25 million. During the previous fiscal year (2023–24), ATT’s revenue declined by 59 per cent, falling from US$7.095 billion in 2022–23 to US$2.887 billion, according to Customs data as published by The Nation.
The Pakistani corridor, largely blocked for many, Kabul is now looking to sea routes through Iran and air corridors to India. But the cost of air freight is manifold, higher than traditional land transport, a burden that would be difficult for many Afghan exporters to bear.
Transit Through Iran
While offering discounted port tariffs and fees, Iranian transit still requires longer transportation times, multiple border clearances, and uncertain cold-chain capacity. This affects competitiveness, especially for perishable goods and dry fruits. Iran and Afghanistan also historically compete in the export of fresh fruit and vegetables. When high freight charges increase the final price, it becomes unaffordable for the end users.
Chambers’ Perspective
Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Sardar Tahir Mehmood told WE News: “No Afghan Transit Trade means no smuggling and re-exporting, which are negative externalities of trade with the neighbouring country. As for the proposed air‑cargo link to India, who would bear the cost of air cargo, which is significantly higher than the ground route through Pakistan?
He added that diverting Afghan trade through Iran could turn Afghanistan’s exporters into competitors with Iran in both dry and fresh fruit exports. While the likely shift may disadvantage Pakistani consumers and some exporters, Mehmood underscored that “sovereignty and security are paramount.”
Analysts warn that unless Iran or India subsidises the new corridors or Afghanistan invests heavily in efficient logistics and cold‑chain infrastructure, many export sectors may shrink, suffer delays, or even be forced out of business. For Pakistan, the sharp decline in ATT offers local manufacturers and traders a rare opening to reclaim domestic market share that was earlier undercut by grey‑market re-exported goods.
