Despite repeated claims, the PDM government is unable to restore the stability and failing to break the inflation cycle. The situation was not good in PTI days as well because the crosshair of the opposition was fixated on inflation related failures. Besides many other intriguing political aspects, economic uplift was also a key objective of PDM behind the Vote of No Confidence (VONC) maneuver.
PDM has so far failed in fulfilling the promised gains and its tenure proved to be the continuation of economic deterioration which started in PTI era. This is also an undeniable fact that economic disaster especially pace of inflation and currency devaluation multiplied during PDM’s one-year tenure. Many factors contributing to incurable inflation but perpetual instability triggered by post VONC situation is in fact a key factor hindering the economic revival. Let’s zoom in on interconnected political and policy factors to identify a way forward for much needed internal stability.
Political Instability: Polarization, Confrontation & Misplaced Priorities
Polarized political landscape is the root cause of growing uncertainty in economic domain. Authentic international watchdogs and experts, including The Economist, Bloomberg, World Bank and Moody’s have pointed out the political instability as a key factor behind economic paralysis.
Major political players having their presence in parliament i.e. PTI, PDM comprising PMLN, PPP & JUI are responsible for perpetuating polarization. After losing coalition government with a VONC, leadership of PTI opted to protest on roads and streets. Parliament was discredited by none other than the single largest party with collective resignations from national assembly. Resign of CM Usman Buzdar ahead of the VONC episode in center triggered a prolonged tussle in Punjab province which eventually ended in Supreme Court.
PTI chairman’s confrontational approach and populist contradictory narratives against a disoriented PDM government continue to boast the chaos. Two failed long marches, reversal of resign policy and ill-timed dissolution of two provincial assemblies could not fetch the intended results. PTI is still striving on streets and roads to seek early elections. This flawed strategy enabled PDM to amend the NAB laws unopposed. PTI is more popular and overcharged in streets but lost its influence in National and provincial assemblies. PDM is more concerned about countering the PTI and largely disoriented from public miseries related to inflation.
Obviously, both PDM and PTI are pursuing misplaced priorities. PDM has failed in the economic domain just like the PTI. Cutthroat power competition seems revolving around populist rhetoric, blame game and hollow slogans with no cogent policy solution in sight. In short, two failed political forces are trying to divert the blame of failure on each other without realizing the damaging effects of confrontation on national stability.
Trembling Pillars of State: Politicized Criticism on Institutions & Violent Political Strategy
Blatant discrediting of state institutions is a new norm in prevailing political crisis. First pillar of state, the legislative houses have been discredited with resigns and unnecessary dissolution of assemblies. Ill-conceived departure of PTI from National Assembly has eventually set an unpleasant trend of dragging the judiciary and establishment in those affairs which are supposed to be settled on the floor of parliament by the political stakeholders. This non-political approach eventually brought the second pillar of state, the judiciary, in dark shadows of politicized split.
Both PDM and PTI have made the judiciary sufficiently controversial by openly criticizing the unfavorable verdicts and gauging the impartiality of the judiciary with respective political yardstick. PTI expressed mistrust on ECP and CEC with barrage of allegations. Judiciary ridiculed with threats in public gatherings by PTI chairman and filthy social media trends by shadowy keyboard warriors.
A malicious targeted campaign against army initiated by PTI chairman has eventually touched vertex with simultaneous attacks on GHQ, Jinnah house Lahore and various military premises in the garb of political protests. Attack on state institutions, and government properties, especially destruction of Peshawar radio station, has further stamped the perpetuating instability. Similar violent reaction was mounted against Police and Rangers at Zaman Park few weeks back. This alarming trend of violent protests and arson has exposed the extremist side of so-called most popular party.
Economic Crisis & Policy Gaps: Reluctance on Structural Reforms
While the political tug of war is more in limelight, but common masses are deeply affected with unstoppable inflation. Past and present regimes need to listen the sane advices coming from economists, international watchdogs and friendly countries. Few grey areas warrant specific apolitical structural measures.
One, over reliance on foreign loans is neither sustainable nor a permanent solution.
Two, process of industrialization is almost frozen. This has subsequently created import-export imbalance.
Three, flawed taxation system and undocumented economy are fundamental issues hindering economic revival.
Four, agricultural policy is not aligned with food and industrial requirements. Preference to sugarcane over wheat and cotton crops during recent years led to food shortage and damaged textile industry respectively.
Five, politicized unsustainable subsidies are detrimental to long-term economic revival.
Six, Ill planned natural and energy resources are no more compatible to domestic and industrial requirements.
Seven, reluctance on structural reforms has hindered liberalization of economy and detrimental to much needed FDIs.
Way Forward
Broad consensus among political stakeholders may be achieved through national dialogue to set a future course for Pakistan in following domains -:
One, Constitutional balance between pillars of state i.e. Parliament, Judiciary, Executive and Media
Two, settlement of political differences with dialogue on the floor of parliament and within the ambit of the constitution
Three, formulation of national economic policy for ten years, disregarding political affiliations with focus on structural reforms
Four, redefining of institutions’ role to avoid unconstitutional tendencies with special emphasis on judiciary and establishment.
Five, Broad formulation of foreign policy corner stones
Six, Fresh look on national security policy with focus on CT strategy and intended shift from geo-politics to geo-economics
Seven, formulation of reliable and robust accountability mechanism
Eight, electoral reforms
