Key Points
- OPEC+ expected to approve third consecutive output quota increase for June
- Incremental hike seen at around 188,000 barrels per day
- Oil prices remain elevated amid persistent Strait of Hormuz disruption
- Market impact expected to be limited due to export bottlenecks
ISLAMABAD: OPEC+ is expected to approve a third consecutive oil output quota increase since the Strait of Hormuz closure due to the Iran war, according to media reports that quoted sources familiar with the matter.
According to the sources quoted by the report, the group attempts to signal supply stability in an otherwise constrained market.
The alliance is likely to raise production targets by around 188,000 barrels per day for June, continuing a series of small incremental adjustments in recent months.
However, the increase is widely viewed as largely symbolic, as physical export constraints continue to limit actual supply flows from key producers.
The development comes at a time when global oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with disrupted maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to restrict the movement of crude shipments.
The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ earlier this week has reshaped the bloc’s internal balance, reducing the spare capacity coordination mechanism and shifting more weight to remaining producers, particularly Saudi Arabia and its core Gulf allies.
Despite the planned increase, oil prices have remained elevated in recent trading, reflecting sustained risk premiums tied to supply uncertainty.
Brent crude has recently traded above the $110 mark in volatile sessions, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has remained above $100, underscoring persistent tightness in global supply conditions.
Market participants note that the pricing impact of OPEC+ quota adjustments has been muted, as logistical bottlenecks and shipping risks outweigh production-side policy changes.
Gulf crude benchmarks have also remained firm in line with global trends, supported by tight spot availability and elevated freight and insurance costs for Gulf-origin barrels.
Overall, the market continues to be driven more by disruption risk and transportation constraints than by incremental changes in output policy, keeping a structural risk premium embedded in prices.
