WASHINGTON: A potentially powerful El Niño climate pattern is increasingly likely to develop later this year, raising the risk of extreme weather events including heatwaves, floods and droughts across the globe, US government scientists said on Thursday.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Niño watch, warning that there is a high probability the phenomenon could emerge by late summer and persist into next year.
Scientists said the likelihood of El Niño forming has risen significantly in recent months.
Earlier forecasts suggested about a 60 percent chance of the pattern developing in the autumn, but updated projections now indicate roughly an 80 percent probability that it could arrive by August, the agency said.
El Niño events typically increase global temperatures and disrupt weather systems worldwide, often triggering floods, droughts and heatwaves.
Risk of global warming
NOAA researchers said there is about a one-in-three chance that the upcoming El Niño could reach strong intensity during the final months of the year.
The last strong El Niño contributed to a surge in global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, pushing the planet above the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold compared with pre-industrial levels for the first time.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said the developing pattern could again raise global temperatures.
“If El Niño develops as expected, it would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures,” Hausfather wrote in a post on X.
He added that although 2026 may not surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, the warming trend could make 2027 very likely to become the warmest year ever recorded.
The El Nino cometh.
This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp. pic.twitter.com/agqcicaYIa
— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) March 6, 2026
Transition from La Niña underway
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the current La Niña pattern — characterised by cooler ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific — is gradually weakening.
Scientists expect it to transition into El Niño conditions, which occur when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average.
The phenomenon is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a natural climate pattern that periodically shifts global weather systems.
“El Niño” means “Little Boy” or “Christ Child” in Spanish.
The term was first used by fishermen along the South American coast in the 17th century, who observed unusually warm ocean waters appearing around Christmas.
Global weather impacts
El Niño is known for reshaping weather patterns across the world.
During an El Niño episode, warmer Pacific waters alter atmospheric circulation. This can produce heatwaves, heavy rainfall, flooding and droughts in different regions.
The phenomenon also affects seasonal climate patterns.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, winters during El Niño typically bring wetter-than-average conditions across the southern United States, while the northern parts of the country often experience drier weather.
Temperatures across much of the continental United States also tend to be warmer than usual.
“El Niño winters are typically warmer across the continental US, especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes,” Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, said in comments emailed to USA TODAY.
Impact on hurricane seasons
El Niño can also influence hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
The warming of Pacific waters often increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which disrupts storm formation.
“Typically, El Niño leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic,” said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, in an email to USA TODAY.
“This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf,” he said.
However, Hazelton noted that unusually warm Atlantic waters can sometimes offset these effects.
By contrast, El Niño conditions generally bring more storm activity in the eastern Pacific, Rosencrans said.
Disaster preparedness
The forecast has also raised questions about disaster preparedness, particularly in the United States.
Experts warn that stronger El Niño conditions could intensify natural disasters in coming months.
The concern comes as the administration of US President Donald Trump has made sweeping changes to federal disaster agencies.
The government has reduced staffing at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) since early last year and dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which previously provided humanitarian assistance following major disasters.
Economist Jesse Anttila-Hughes of the University of San Francisco warned that the situation could pose challenges if extreme events occur.
“It’s like having a ship stall out in front of a tidal wave,” he said.
Officials from FEMA were not immediately available for comment.
