Key Points
- Meteorologists forecast near-normal to slightly above normal nationwide spring rainfall
- Above-normal temperatures expected across the country, strongest in the north
- Early heatwave risk flagged for southern Punjab and Sindh
- Rabi crops may benefit from rain but face heat and pest stress
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to see a recovery in spring rainfall, but with intensifying heat across much of the country, the Pakistan Meteorological Department said in its March-April-May 2026 outlook issued on Wednesday
Official Meteorologists warn of early heatwave conditions and accelerated glacier melt in the north. The department said cumulative rainfall during the winter season of December 2025 to February 2026 remained 26.1 per cent below normal nationwide.
According to the shortfall breakdown, Punjab recorded a steep 52 per cent deficit and Gilgit-Baltistan nearly 48 per cent below average. Sindh, by contrast, posted a 50.8 per cent surplus, largely due to two moderate rainfall spells in late December and mid-February.
Temperatures during winter remained above normal across most regions, with Gilgit-Baltistan recording the highest positive anomaly of 2.2 degrees centigrade above average.
Looking ahead to the spring season, the Met Office projects near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall across Pakistan, with the strongest positive anomalies expected over southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining areas of central Punjab and northern Balochistan.
Near-normal rainfall is anticipated in Sindh, central and southern Balochistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The forecast is based on a multi-model ensemble of nine global seasonal prediction systems.
According to the department, both the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are presently in neutral phases. ENSO is expected to turn positive toward the end of the season, a factor that can influence regional circulation patterns.
The probabilistic outlook shows the strongest signals for near-normal rainfall over southwestern Sindh and southern Balochistan, with no widespread indication of extreme wet or dry conditions.
However, temperatures are projected to remain above normal through May, with the sharpest departures in northern areas including Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Southeastern Pakistan, particularly Sindh, is also expected to experience a high likelihood of above-normal early heat.
The department warned that plain areas of southern Punjab and Sindh could see heatwave development during the season due to prevailing atmospheric conditions.
Rising temperatures in high-altitude regions may accelerate snowmelt, increasing the risk of glacier lake outburst floods in vulnerable valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan.
Agriculturally, near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall could improve soil moisture during grain-filling and maturity stages of Rabi crops such as wheat, potentially supporting yields and reducing irrigation demand.
Yet higher temperatures may shorten the crop season in the plains of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and intensify pest and disease outbreaks.
Urban centres, including Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore, may experience an earlier pollen peak, with post-mid-March rainfall possibly extending the allergy season. Strong winds, dust storms and hail events are also possible due to steep temperature gradients during transitional months.
The Met Office noted that seasonal forecasts indicate general trends rather than precise daily predictions and should be used alongside short-term advisories for planning in agriculture, water management and disaster preparedness.
