Key Points
- Pakistan Planning Commission sketches a roadmap for permanent exit from International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing after current bailout ends in 2027
- Ahsan Iqbal outlines export and investment goals to strengthen foreign exchange buffers.
- Structural reforms and governance shift are crucial, beyond headline export targets.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has begun formulating a comprehensive strategy aimed at lasting economic self-reliance after the current $7 billion IMF programme expires in September 2027, with emphasis on sustainable growth drivers such as exports, investment, and structural reform.
Government documents and off-the-cuff interviews with officials illustrate a shift from merely negotiating financial support to designing a long-term economic framework focused on breaking the cycle of successive bailout packages from the International Monetary Fund and other international financial institutions.
In recent high-level consultations, authorities acknowledged that while the IMF programme has provided macroeconomic stabilisation, the true test lies in building resilience that eliminates dependence on external funding cycles. Without a significant enhancement in foreign exchange reserves and export performance, Pakistan could find itself gravitating toward future IMF interventions.
In a briefing to civil and military leadership, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal outlined a roadmap targeting $63 billion in exports within four years and a ten-year ambition of $200 billion in domestic and foreign investment. Achieving these goals, he said, is central to sustaining growth and shoring up external buffers.
Officials have signaled that an economy transitioning from stabilisation to growth may initially experience a widening current‑account deficit, estimated at close to 2 per cent of GDP, translating into external financing needs above $10 billion annually in the latter half of this decade.
The Planning Commission’s internal assessment projects that Pakistan could meet external financing needs exceeding $12 billion through a combination of export growth, increased remittances, and foreign direct investment — provided deep-rooted reforms are implemented without delay.
However, analysts note that focusing on raw export figures alone risks obscuring broader structural weaknesses, such as low investment rates, complex trade infrastructure, and governance constraints, that have historically dampened Pakistan’s competitiveness. A recent opinion suggests that decades of reliance on external aid and bailouts have created a strategic dependency that will not be overcome by headline targets alone.
To address these challenges, policymakers are underscoring the need for whole-of-government reform ownership, including custom and tariff reform, fiscal discipline, energy sector restructuring, human capital development, and export-oriented industrial policy.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has tasked the Planning Commission with translating the broad roadmap and the 10‑year Uraan Pakistan plan into actionable results, with measurable outcomes to ensure that the current IMF programme becomes the last such reliance on international financial assistance.
