Key Points
- World population may peak at 10.3 billion by 2080–2090, but countries like Japan, Cuba, and Eastern European nations will face sharp declines.
- By 2070, 2.2 billion people aged 65+ will outnumber those under 18, signalling a major global aging trend.
- Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is set to double by 2054, driving over one-fifth of global growth by 2100.
- Migration, longer life expectancy, and lower fertility shape population trends, with voluntary stabilization possible through supportive policies.
ISLAMABAD: The world population is projected to continue its upward trend over the coming decades, yet several countries are expected to witness significant declines, driven primarily by falling fertility rates and high emigration.
Over the past 200 years, the global population has surged by nearly 700%, rising from about 1 billion in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2024. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects, global numbers are expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and peak around 10.3 billion between 2080 and 2090.
The report highlights a notable demographic shift: the world’s elderly population is growing faster than its youth. By 2030, individuals aged over 80 are projected to number 265 million, surpassing infants under one year old. By 2070, the population aged 65 and above is expected to reach 2.2 billion, outnumbering those under 18.
Regions with Rapid Growth
Africa is forecasted to experience the fastest population growth, with its population rising by 79% to 2.2 billion by 2054. Sub-Saharan African countries, including Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Angola, are projected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054. By 2100, the region could account for more than one-fifth of global population growth.
Countries Facing Decline
Conversely, some nations are set to see sharp decreases in population. In 2024, the Cook Islands recorded the fastest decline at 2.24%, mainly due to emigration to wealthier neighbouring countries.
Eastern European nations, Japan, and Cuba are expected to experience the most dramatic declines from 2020 to 2050. Bulgaria’s population could drop by 22.5%, Lithuania by 22.1%, and Latvia by 21.6%.
Japan faces declining fertility and late marriage trends, with 727,277 births in 2023 versus 1,575,936 deaths.
Cuba’s fertility rate is among the lowest in Latin America at 1.4 children per woman, compounded by minimal immigration.
Global Population Rankings and Trends
China and India remain the world’s most populous countries, with India surpassing China in 2023. Europe’s presence in the top 15 most populous nations is shrinking, with Russia the only European country in the list as of 2025.
By 2100, seven African countries are expected to feature among the world’s 15 most populous nations.
Drivers of Population Change
The global slowdown in population growth is primarily due to declining fertility, which has fallen from over five children per woman in the 1960s to 2.25 today, and is projected to drop to 2.1 by the late 2040s. Contributing factors include greater female autonomy, higher education levels, delayed marriage, career prioritization, and access to family planning.
Rising life expectancy and lower mortality rates also contribute to demographic shifts. By 2030, the global population over 60 is expected to reach 1.4 billion, up 300 million from 2023. Average life expectancy is projected to rise from 73.3 years in 2024 to 77.2 years by 2054.
By 2054, several countries are expected to register population growth due to immigration.
The top 10 countries with the highest number of migrants in 2024 were as follows (in millions)
The United States – 52.4M
Germany – 16.8M
Saudi Arabia – 13.7M
The United Kingdom – 11.8M
France – 9.2M
Spain – 8.9M
Canada – 8.8M
United Arab Emirates – 8.2M
Australia – 8.1M
Russian Federation – 7.6M
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, January 2025
International migration continues to influence population growth in specific countries. In 2024, the largest migrant populations were in the United States (52.4 million), Germany (16.8 million), Saudi Arabia (13.7 million), and the United Kingdom (11.8 million). Globally, international migrants numbered 304 million in 2024, doubling since 1990.
New Book Sparks Debate on Depopulation
Economists Dean Spears and Michael Geruso’s new book, After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People, has attracted widespread attention for warning of long-term global depopulation driven by low fertility rates.
Spears, a professor at the University of Austin, Texas, argues that larger populations boost collective well-being and innovation. Critics, however, argue that this view overlooks poverty, environmental crises, and stagnating development in regions experiencing rapid population growth.
Spears’ Claims on Population and Environment
Spears contends that smaller populations will not solve environmental problems and that more people are inherently beneficial. Experts counter that critical issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource depletion cannot be solved by innovation alone. Moreover, high population growth in impoverished areas often worsens living conditions rather than fostering development.
Stabilisation vs. Depopulation Solutions
While Spears emphasises population stabilisation rather than unchecked growth, he claims that no effective solutions to depopulation currently exist. Research shows that most people aim to have two children, and supportive social policies could help achieve voluntary population stabilization.
Depopulation Still Decades Away
Global depopulation is not an immediate concern. According to UN projections, the world population will remain above 10 billion for the rest of the century. A future population decline could even benefit both the planet and human well-being.
Focus on High-Growth, Vulnerable Regions
Experts stress that attention should instead focus on areas experiencing rapid population growth combined with climate vulnerability. An estimated 257 million women worldwide still have an unmet need for contraception, highlighting the importance of empowering individuals to make informed reproductive choices.
