ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s rooftop solar generation is poised to exceed daytime electricity demand on the national grid in several major industrial centers next year, marking a milestone in the country’s accelerating shift toward distributed renewable energy, Reuters reports quoting a senior government official.
Aisha Moriani, Secretary at Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change, said on the sidelines of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil that the country will soon witness “negative grid-linked demand” during certain daylight hours as behind-the-meter solar output fully offsets consumption from the grid.
The trend reflects a dramatic surge in rooftop solar installations across Pakistan, driven by persistent power cuts, rising tariffs, and an urgent push to reduce emissions. While households and businesses have benefited from lower bills, the rapid drop in grid consumption has intensified financial stress on the country’s already debt-burdened utilities.
According to Moriani, cities with the highest penetration of rooftop systems—especially Lahore, followed by Faisalabad and Sialkot—are expected to experience prolonged periods during which solar output surpasses grid demand. Such “negative demand” events, commonly seen in parts of Europe and Australia, would place Pakistan among the first major emerging economies to encounter the phenomenon at scale.
More frequent oversupply periods are expected during peak sunlight hours in summer, industrial holidays, and mild-weather days when solar generation spikes.
“Pakistan’s challenge is not whether renewable energy will grow,” Moriani said, “it is how fast the grid, regulation, and market design can evolve to keep pace.”
To address the shifting energy landscape, the government intends to introduce revised tariffs for large solar adopters and restructure grid maintenance fees to ensure equitable cost sharing among users who continue relying on grid infrastructure.
Grid-linked power demand is expected to grow 3–4% this year—below historical averages—and could remain subdued in 2026 as distributed solar usage continues to rise.
The solar boom is also reshaping Pakistan’s gas import strategy. Moriani confirmed that Islamabad has begun renegotiating long-term LNG supply arrangements with Qatar and has cancelled cargoes from Italy’s Eni as part of efforts to secure lower prices and greater delivery flexibility.
“Pakistan seeks stability and affordability, not expansion of LNG dependency,” she said, adding that while no formal negotiations occurred at COP30, the summit provided valuable diplomatic opportunities to engage with global energy officials.
The shift underscores the broader transformation underway in Pakistan’s energy sector, as renewable capacity expands faster than the grid and market mechanisms currently anticipate.
