Bangladesh enters 2025 amid one of the most consequential political transitions in its recent history. On 17 November 2025, a Dhaka tribunal convicted Sheikh Hasina in absentia—issuing a death sentence over charges of crimes against humanity linked to the 2024 student crackdown.
UN estimates suggest up to 1,400 people were killed in the suppression, marking one of the deadliest episodes in recent Bangladeshi history. Hasina remains in self-imposed exile, reportedly in India, contesting the legitimacy of the verdict.
Since August 2024, the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has sought to stabilize institutions, manage political turbulence, and navigate a deeply polarized society.
India’s Diplomatic Dilemma
India is now hosting a leader whom a Bangladeshi tribunal has sentenced to death for orchestrating lethal force against unarmed students. This situation raises both legal and diplomatic questions.
Under the 2013 India–Bangladesh Extradition Treaty, both countries pledged cooperation in prosecuting serious offenses—including those punishable by death—on the basis of dual criminality and mutual legal assistance. Bangladesh has previously honored this framework, returning high-profile fugitives such as ULFA leader Anup Chetia at India’s request.
India itself routinely invokes international law in extradition cases, including efforts to repatriate Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi from the UK, and the successful extradition of Tahawwur Rana from the United States. These examples underscore India’s own commitment to accountability and the rule of law.
Against this backdrop, sheltering Sheikh Hasina challenges both India’s credibility and its stated legal principles. Diplomatic and legal norms suggest New Delhi should engage Dhaka in good faith on her repatriation, or publicly clarify why its treaty obligations and rule-of-law standards do not apply in this case.
Respecting the rights of victims, human rights principles, and treaty commitments is central to upholding regional credibility.
Transition Shaped by Nationalist Demands
For over fifteen years, Bangladesh’s governance model fused rapid economic growth with political centralization. Early infrastructure gains and social progress masked structural challenges—rising inflation, lagging job creation, and narrowing political space.
Contested elections, securitized governance, and civic fatigue fueled public dissatisfaction. A large segment of society linked these challenges to India’s perceived influence over Dhaka, particularly during the Awami League era.
Whether fully accurate or not, this perception became politically salient, shaping calls for autonomy in domestic and foreign policy.
The interim government inherits a politically conscious populace that insists on sovereignty, transparency, and institutional accountability. Civil-military recalibration, economic pressures, and rising civic nationalism create conditions for a strategic reorientation in Dhaka’s foreign policy.
Recalibrating Relations with India
Bangladesh’s relationship with India is being reviewed with greater emphasis on sovereign decision-making and reciprocity. Cooperation remains essential, but Dhaka now positions itself as a partner rather than a subordinate.
Past intelligence collaborations are under review, diplomatic outreach is being diversified, and alignment with Indian regional priorities is increasingly tempered by domestic considerations.
New Delhi faces the challenge of engaging a Bangladesh that insists on parity, policy autonomy, and strategic diversification.
Engaging Pakistan: Opportunity and Caution
For Pakistan, the transition offers a rare opening. Historical grievances, the legacy of 1971, and limited bilateral engagement have traditionally constrained relations.
Yet institutional avenues are opening: Pakistan’s CJCSC, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, visited Dhaka in late 2025, meeting Bangladesh’s military and interim leadership.
Senior Bangladeshi officers have reciprocated with visits to Pakistan, reflecting structured confidence-building at the institutional level.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh continues to diversify defense procurement—engaging suppliers from China, Türkiye, and others—as part of a broader modernization agenda.
Dhaka signals a clear intent to preserve strategic autonomy, balancing engagement with multiple partners rather than committing exclusively to one.
Framework for Pakistan’s Constructive Engagement
Pakistan’s most effective approach lies in incremental, low-politics engagement:
- Academic and Research Diplomacy: Joint research centers, faculty exchanges, and scholarships to foster long-term societal linkages.
- Trade and Economic Cooperation: Textiles, pharmaceuticals, IT services, and agriculture provide tangible opportunities for mutual benefit.
- Soft Power Outreach: Media partnerships, cultural exchanges, and youth engagement can shape perceptions and build goodwill.
- Historical Dialogue: Academic initiatives on 1971, framed responsibly, can shift narratives from blame to understanding.
Crucially, Pakistan must avoid interpreting Bangladesh’s evolving policy solely through the prism of India–Pakistan rivalry. Dhaka seeks recognition of its autonomy, not recruitment into a regional axis. Respecting this reality is central to sustainable engagement.
Region at a Turning Point
Bangladesh’s trajectory in 2025 is shaped by domestic turbulence, assertive civic participation, and growing strategic diversification.
Sheikh Hasina’s conviction accelerated change, but these dynamics reflect deeper societal currents rejecting both internal authoritarianism and external domination.
For Pakistan, the prudent course lies in diplomacy rooted in restraint, respect, and long-term vision. Incremental, constructive engagement can position Islamabad as a credible partner aligned with Dhaka’s emerging aspirations.
Bangladesh now seeks a foreign policy defined by sovereignty, balance, and accountability. How India and Pakistan respond will shape South Asia’s strategic architecture for the decade ahead.
