KEY POINTS
- Afghanistan’s poppy area fell 20% in 2025 to 10,200 hectares.
- 2025 decline followed a 19% rebound in 2024, still far below 2022’s 232,000 hectares.
- Despite a smaller crop, dry opium prices fell 27% to about $570 per kilogram.
- Price, cultivation, and seizure trends signal fundamental changes in regional drug markets.
- Risk grows that cultivation shifts to other countries as Afghan output contracts.
ISLAMABAD: Opium cultivation in Afghanistan dropped by 20% in 2025, extending the sharp decline that started after the Taliban imposed a nationwide narcotics ban in 2022, according to a new report released by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) on Thursday.
“The total area under opium poppy cultivation in 2025 was estimated at 10,200 hectares, 20% lower than in 2024 (12,800 hectares) and a fraction of the pre-ban levels recorded in 2022, when an estimated 232,000 hectares were cultivated nationwide,” the UNODC said in a statement.
It said that Afghanistan, long the world’s dominant producer, had found the harvest had shrunk even faster, falling an estimated 32% to 296 tons.
The 20% decline in cultivated area comes after a 19% rebound in 2024. These recent shifts, however, are minor compared with the dramatic plunge seen in 2023, which followed the Taliban’s 2022 decision to ban narcotics production.
The UN has cautioned that Afghanistan’s shrinking opium production could prompt increased cultivation in other regions and drive a faster transition toward synthetic drugs such as methamphetamine, which are cheaper to make and more difficult to trace.
Despite the sharp decline in output, opium prices dropped 27% to about $570 per kilogram, indicating shifting market dynamics and possible stockpiling by traders.
“Cultivation data, together with prices and seizures, signal fundamental changes in drug markets and trafficking in and around Afghanistan,” the report said.
As Afghanistan’s opium production continues to contract, there is a growing risk that cultivation could shift to other countries, potentially reshaping global drug trafficking routes and fueling new regional challenges.
“As agricultural-based opiate production declines, synthetic drugs appear to have become the new business model for organised crime groups due to the relative ease of production, the greater difficulty in detection and relative resilience to climate changes,” it added.
According to the World Drug Report 2025, global opium production reached 2,140 tons, with Myanmar emerging as the largest producer, accounting for nearly 46.5% of the total at 995 tons.
Afghanistan, once the world’s dominant source, contributed 433 tons, or about 20.2% of global output, reflecting the continued impact of the Taliban’s narcotics ban.
Other notable producers include Mexico, with 165.5 tons (last reported in 2022), and Lao, producing around 60 tons (last reported in 2023). Colombia’s production remains minimal at 18 tons, based on its last available data from 2018.
The data highlights a significant geographic shift in opium cultivation.
