ISLAMABAD: As India’s poorest state, Bihar, heads into the first phase of its assembly elections on Thursday, the stakes extend far beyond its 243 constituencies. The outcome will test not only the resilience of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) but also the durability of the political myth that has sustained his dominance for over a decade — that of an invincible, mass leader immune to anti-incumbency and economic backlash.
The polls — split into two phases this week and next — come at a precarious moment for Modi’s government. Having lost its parliamentary majority in last year’s general elections, the BJP is now dependent on fragile alliances with regional partners, notably Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JDU. For the first time since 2014, Modi’s political supremacy is showing cracks.
A Fraying Coalition
The BJP’s alliance with Nitish Kumar — once hailed as a symbol of pragmatic politics — has grown uneasy. Kumar, Bihar’s current chief minister and a veteran power broker, has built his political survival on switching allegiances between rivals. Analysts warn that if the election results weaken his standing, he may again defect, potentially destabilizing Modi’s coalition in New Delhi.
“There’s no question this is a test of Modi’s control,” said independent analyst Kingshuk Nag. “The BJP cannot win Bihar on its own — it never has. Without regional allies, its aura of national dominance fades fast.”
The party’s decision not to project Kumar as its official chief ministerial candidate has further fueled speculation of friction. Critics say it reflects a broader BJP tendency to eclipse allies once they outlive their utility — a pattern visible in other states, from Maharashtra to Punjab.
Caste and Class — The Political Battlefield
Bihar’s politics are deeply rooted in caste identities. With more than 63 percent of its population belonging to “backward classes,” and 15 percent from upper castes, power in the state has always hinged on complex caste arithmetic. Nitish Kumar commands loyalty among the “extremely backward castes” (EBCs), while his main rival, Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), draws support from the broader Other Backward Classes (OBCs).
For the first time, however, these marginalized blocs — historically divided — are central to the political narrative. “This election isn’t just about parties,” Nag noted. “It’s about which caste coalition defines Bihar’s future.”
Tejashwi Yadav, the young RJD leader and son of former chief ministers Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi, has tapped into youth discontent. His campaign has revolved around unemployment and agricultural distress — issues Modi’s government has been unable to tame despite promises of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas” (development for all).
The Shadow of Corruption and the Past
Yadav’s challenge, however, is burdened by his family’s legacy — years of alleged corruption and misrule during the RJD’s tenure from 1990 to 2005. The BJP-JDU alliance has weaponized this history, warning voters against a return to the “jungle raj,” a term evoking Bihar’s past lawlessness.
Yet the irony isn’t lost on voters who see little improvement in governance despite two decades of alternating regimes. “People are tired of the same slogans,” said a local journalist in Patna. “They know corruption didn’t end with the RJD — it just changed hands.”
Modi’s Waning Magic
The Bihar elections are being seen as a referendum on Modi’s post-2024 political standing. While his image as a global statesman remains intact, his domestic approval has been dented by inflation, youth unemployment, and widening inequality. Bihar — with over a third of its population surviving on less than $2 a day — reflects the limits of his economic promises.
Observers say Modi’s speeches in Bihar have leaned heavily on divisive rhetoric, invoking Hindu nationalist themes rather than economic reform. “When a government loses the ability to campaign on performance, it campaigns on identity,” said political commentator Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
The BJP’s campaign narrative — that only it can prevent the “return of chaos” under opposition rule — is a familiar one. Yet this time, it faces fatigue and skepticism. “People are asking, who brought jobs? Who raised wages? Who stopped migration?” said a Patna University professor. “The rhetoric is running out of oxygen.”
The X-Factor: Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj
Adding complexity to the race is the entry of political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor, once the mastermind behind Modi’s 2014 campaign. His new Jan Suraaj Party has positioned itself as a reformist alternative, appealing to educated and urban voters frustrated with both the BJP and RJD.
Kishor’s story — a former UN official who abandoned political consultancy to “serve the people” — has struck a chord among Bihar’s youth. “He’s seen as someone who gave up money and influence for principle,” said Mukhopadhyay. “In a cynical political landscape, that matters.”
Though unlikely to win many seats, Kishor’s movement could split the anti-BJP vote, making his presence a crucial wildcard in an already unpredictable contest.
Democracy on the Brink
Beyond Bihar’s borders, the election is viewed as a test of India’s democratic health. Recent controversies — such as the mass deletion of 6.5 million voter names during a nationwide electoral roll revision — have raised concerns about disenfranchisement of the poor and minorities.
“Every state election now carries national consequences,” said an observer from Delhi’s Centre for Policy Studies. “When polarization becomes a campaign strategy, state elections risk turning into laboratories for larger authoritarian experiments.”
The Road Ahead
As Bihar’s 3.75 crore voters head to the polls, the result will signal whether Modi’s populist machine still commands the political landscape — or whether India’s poorest state will expose the widening cracks beneath his image of invincibility.
If the BJP-JDU alliance falters, it could mark the beginning of a broader erosion of Modi’s authority — both within his party and across the federal coalition that sustains his government.
“The stakes go beyond Bihar,” said analyst Nag. “If Modi loses control of the states, he loses control of the narrative. And in Indian politics, narrative is power.”
