ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has predicted a weak La Niña phase in November and December this year due to changing weather patterns.
Briefing the media in Islamabad on Thursday, Tayyab Shah, Director of Risk Management at the NDMA, stated that the La Niña phase is expected to persist for three to four months. He warned that the upcoming winter season is likely to bring below-average rainfall, particularly between November and January.
According to the NDMA official, central regions of the country—including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir—are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, while winter precipitation and snowfall will largely be limited to the northern areas.
Punjab is likely to experience near-normal temperatures, whereas northern, southern, and western regions may see above-average temperatures.
Shah added that cold winds are expected to sweep across Pakistan between December and April, accompanied by lower humidity levels. The shift in seasonal patterns suggests that winter will now likely peak in late January rather than December.
He noted that snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is projected to be 5–7% below average, which could impact glacier health and water availability during the summer of 2026.
NDMA officials also warned that reduced snowfall and limited rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan may lead to drought-like conditions.
However, they said that monsoon rainfall in 2025, combined with adequate dam storage, should help prevent any major water crisis.
The authority said that by late November, Siberian winds will bring a drop in temperatures across northern and central Pakistan, with northern regions likely to experience severe cold during December.
The NDMA’s prediction comes just days after the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) dismissed the possibility of an exceptionally cold winter this year.
The PMD had noted that Pakistan may experience “some winter waves” of minor intensity due to the influence of western winds in the coming months.
Experts explain that La Niña is triggered by an unusual drop in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which disrupts global weather patterns and can lead to extreme temperature fluctuations.
