KEY POINTS
- Modi’s coalition faces a tough election battle in Bihar.
- Bihar’s result could affect the stability of Modi’s NDA.
- Nitish Kumar remains a key but unpredictable NDA ally.
- Bihar, with 130 million people, is politically crucial for Modi.
- NDA leads opposition by only 1.6 percentage points: Survey.
- Welfare payments to women boost NDA’s marginal edge in polls.
- Women voters hold major influence due to male migration.
- Voter list removals spark anger and allegations of disenfranchisement.
- Youth unemployment remains a dominant issue despite recent improvements.
- New party Jan Suraaj challenges Modi’s popularity in Bihar.
- Bihar votes on November 6 and 11; results on November 14.
ISLAMABAD: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition faces a tough electoral battle in Bihar state next month, with rising unemployment, migration, and concerns over voter lists posing significant challenges.
The regional outcome could have national implications for Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Bihar, one of India’s poorest and third most populous states with more than 130 million residents, remains politically vital for Modi’s alliance. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar—known for shifting allegiances between the ruling camp and the opposition—is currently aligned with the NDA, making the state’s assembly polls crucial for both leaders.
Analysts quoted by Reuters say that any cracks within the NDA in the November election could threaten the coalition’s stability ahead of further polls in Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.
The NDA currently holds 293 of 543 seats in the national Parliament, but its core voter base remains strongest in Assam.
Women make the decisions because the men are not here. They talk about the opposition’s promises of more financial help, and my sense is that they trust those promises more.” – Nivedita Jha, Patna-based activist
Narrow Contest and Women’s Role
According to a Reuters-cited survey by Vote Vibe, the NDA held a slim 1.6 percentage point lead over the opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress Party as of October 8.
The survey agency noted that the NDA’s advantage stemmed largely from welfare schemes such as direct transfers to 12.1 million women under a self-employment subsidy programme worth more than 121 billion rupees (about $1.37 billion).
Women are expected to be a decisive voting bloc, Reuters reported, as many men migrate from Bihar to larger cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi for work, often leaving women behind to make voting decisions.
They have declared me dead. People in my village mock me, and the bank refuses to let me withdraw my money,” – Devi said.
“Women make the decisions because the men are not here. They talk about the opposition’s promises of more financial help, and my sense is that they trust those promises more,” Patna-based activist Nivedita Jha told Reuters.
Anger Over Voter List Removals
The revision of Bihar’s voter rolls has also created discontent. In one case reported by Reuters, 85-year-old Jitni Devi from Patna said her name was deleted from the electoral list, leaving her unable to vote or receive her pension.
“They have declared me dead. People in my village mock me, and the bank refuses to let me withdraw my money,” Devi said.
The state election commission did not respond to Reuters queries, while the national poll body has maintained that all such complaints are thoroughly investigated.
Unemployment and Youth Frustration
Unemployment continues to resonate as a major electoral issue. Government data cited by Reuters showed that 9.9 per cent of Bihar’s youth aged 15–29 were unemployed in 2023–24, a sharp drop from 30.9 per cent in 2018–19. Yet, many young voters remain dissatisfied with the pace of job creation.
Joblessness, migration, rising debts, and loss of agricultural income are the core issues. There’s been a visible dip in Modi’s popularity.” – Uday Singh, national president of Jan Suraaj.
“For me, the issue of jobs matters the most,” said 25-year-old first-time voter Babloo Kumar. “I’ve seen my father leave Bihar every year in search of work.”
A new political group, Jan Suraaj—founded by strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, once part of Modi’s campaign team—aims to reset Bihar’s political priorities.
“Joblessness, migration, rising debts, and loss of agricultural income are the core issues. There’s been a visible dip in Modi’s popularity,” said the party’s national president, Uday Singh, as quoted by Reuters.
The opposition has pledged a law guaranteeing at least one government job per family if it wins power, while Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party remains confident of success.
“The NDA alliance is in a very solid position,” BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan told Reuters. “People continue to have strong faith in Prime Minister Modi’s vision.”
Voting for Bihar’s 243 assembly seats will be conducted in two phases—on November 6 and 11—with results scheduled to be announced on November 14, Reuters added.
