ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has witnessed a sharp and sudden turn in weather patterns as the first widespread rains of the fall season and early snowfall in the northern mountains mark an unusually early onset of winter.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) report that a westerly wave sweeping across the region has brought downpours, thunderstorms and sub-zero temperatures to upper elevations — from the Karakoram and Hindu Kush ranges to the foothills of the Himalayas.
Early Snowfall Reports — Unverified but Alarming
According to reports by state and local media, heavy early snowfall has struck the northern mountainous regions of Pakistan, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and the upper Kaghan and Kalam valleys, leaving tourists stranded and roads blocked.
The report suggests snow has immobilised trekking routes and mountain passes, complicating movement in high-altitude zones.
However, as of now, these reports have not been confirmed by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and provincial disaster management authorities.
Heavy early snowfall blanketed parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, Hunza, Skardu, Chitral, and the upper Kaghan-Naran valleys over the weekend, stranding several tourist groups and blocking key access routes, including sections of the Karakoram Highway.
Rescue teams under the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority and local administrations have been mobilised to clear snow and reopen roads.
Temperatures in high-altitude valleys fell sharply below freezing, with the PMD reporting the season’s first measurable snow accumulation at major peaks.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) say that a westerly disturbance and an influx of moist currents are driving the change, bringing thunderstorms, rain and isolated hail in some areas and prompting weather advisories for several provinces.
What is in Sight ahead
The PMD’s short-term bulletins for the Potohar and neighbouring regions flagged showers, thunderstorms and a sharp fall in temperatures up to October 7, calling the rainfall the season’s first significant autumn shower almost across the country.
PMD seasonal outlooks show that after an unusually intense monsoon, the country is now entering a cooler phase — and that this transition could be abrupt in places.
NDMA advisories drew attention to a westerly disturbance expected to affect Pakistan for several days, warning of light to moderate rain with isolated thunderstorms over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northeastern and central Punjab, and a noticeable temperature drop due to cold continental air.
The authority urged provincial administrations to monitor river levels and maintain readiness for localised flooding or road disruptions in vulnerable districts.
From an extreme monsoon to an early winter — the climate context
This rapid swing — from an unusually wet monsoon season that caused widespread flooding to an early onset of winter rains and snow — fits a pattern climate scientists have been warning about: more intense, erratic weather extremes driven by a warming world.
Independent analyses have found that climate change likely intensified this summer’s heavy monsoon rains over Pakistan, amplifying flood risk and damage to communities and infrastructure.
The combination of exceptional summer rains followed by abrupt cold spells increases the strain on already weakened systems and livelihoods.
On the ground: impacts and immediate risks
Authorities and local media report pockets of early snowfall in northern districts and heavy rain in parts of Punjab and Potohar, disrupting travel, making mountain passes slippery, and causing short-term power outages and communications interruptions in hilly rural areas.
The NDMA and provincial disaster bodies have reiterated guidance to the public: avoid crossing swollen streams, take shelter in sturdy buildings, and heed local evacuation orders where issued.
Humanitarian agencies remain concerned about populations still recovering from summer floods, who are more exposed to cold stress and secondary hazards.
Why this matters for recovery and resilience
The country’s emergency response capacity is being tested on two fronts. First, relief and reconstruction from the heavy monsoon floods remain incomplete in many districts; second, early rains and snowfall increase the risk of crop damage, transport disruptions and cold-related illnesses just as communities try to recover.
Experts caution that rapid shifts between extremes — intense rainfall to early cold — complicate planning for relief, agricultural cycles and infrastructure repairs, according to unocha.org
Long view: accelerating climate risks demand policy action
Scientific attribution studies and global analyses reveal the fingerprints of climate change in the recent extreme monsoon events that hit Pakistan harder than usual.
Policymakers and donors have repeatedly been urged to prioritise climate adaptation: early warning systems, climate-proofed infrastructure, resilient agricultural policies and social safety nets for displaced and vulnerable communities.
The PMD’s seasonal outlook and NDMA alerts underscore the practical need for such investments — not only to manage floods but also to prepare for sudden cold snaps and shifting seasonal patterns.
What to watch next
Forecasters expect the westerly disturbance to likely linger for several days, bringing intermittent rain and isolated thunderstorms across northern and central Pakistan, followed by cooler-than-normal temperatures in many areas.
The PMD and NDMA will continue to issue bulletins, and local administrations are on alert. The citizens are advised to follow official advisories and avoid travel in high-risk corridors until conditions stabilise. (ndma.gov.pk)
