KEY POINTS
- Seasonal forecasts point to tough weather ahead
- Widespread rains, hailstorms, and flash floods forecast across Pakistan
- Rainfed northern areas face below-normal rainfall, hurting Rabi sowing
- Urban flooding, landslides, and dengue risk highlighted by Met Office
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Wednesday warned of widespread rains across the South Asian country as a well-marked low-pressure system over the Gulf of Kutch drives moist currents into Sindh.
According to the National Forecasting Centre of the weather department, the above system is coinciding with a fresh western disturbance entering northern Pakistan.
Officials cautioned that while heavy downpours are expected in the first week of October, the broader seasonal outlook suggests below-normal rainfall in northern rainfed areas, posing risks to soil moisture and timely sowing of Rabi crops.
According to the PMD, Punjab and Islamabad will experience scattered heavy rainfalls between October 4 and 6, with Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Sialkot among the cities at risk of urban flooding.
Murree, Galliyat, Attock, Chakwal, and Jhelum are also expected to receive widespread rain and hailstorms. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, intense rainfall with flash floods is forecast for Swat, Dir, Kohistan, Abbottabad, and adjoining districts.
Forecasts also predict heavy rains and thunderstorms from October 4 to 7, with a likelihood of snowfall over the high mountains in Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Sindh, including Karachi, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas, and Tharparkar, is expected to receive thunderstorms until October 3, while Balochistan’s Zhob, Quetta, Naseerabad, and Dera Bugti may experience rain spells between October 4 and 6.
The PMD warned that “windstorm, hailstorm and lightning may damage weak structures such as kacha houses, electric poles, billboards, and vehicles,” while landslides could hit hilly areas of KP, GB, Kashmir, Murree, and Galliyat.
The department’s seasonal outlook, issued September 30, noted that “the northern half of the country is likely to experience below-normal rainfall, with the highest deficits expected over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and northern Punjab.”
It added that mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, especially over eastern Gilgit-Baltistan.
Agriculture experts said that reduced rainfall in rainfed regions could lead to greater reliance on supplementary irrigation, water resource strains and increased cultivation costs.
The PMD also flagged risks for public health, noting that humid conditions in October and November could “create an environment conducive to a dengue outbreak” in major cities, while prolonged dry spells later in the season may trigger smog formation in Punjab’s plains.
Authorities have been advised to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures to minimise risks from flash floods, crop damage, and disease outbreaks during the forecast period.
