KEY POINTS
- Pakistan’s qualification for the Asia Cup 2025 final depends on complex scenarios involving net run rate and match outcomes
- Even with two remaining victories, Pakistan’s spot in the final is not guaranteed due to potential tie-breaker situations
- Recent match results, including Pakistan’s loss to India and Bangladesh’s close win over Sri Lanka, have made qualification scenarios more uncertain
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s prospects of reaching the Asia Cup 2025 final continue to hinge on a series of complex outcomes, with net run rate (NRR) emerging as a critical factor.
Despite remaining in contention, their qualification is far from assured, and even two victories in their remaining fixtures may not guarantee a spot in the final.
Current Qualification Scenarios
Current scenarios suggest that if India sweeps all three Super Four matches and Pakistan defeats Bangladesh but loses to Sri Lanka, the two teams would finish level on wins, and NRR would determine the finalist.
Similarly, if Pakistan beats both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India defeats Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh upsets India, a three-way tie on wins could occur, again elevating NRR as the decisive criterion.
Pathways to the Final
A more straightforward pathway exists if both Pakistan and India win all their remaining matches, with India securing three wins and Pakistan two, leading to a final scheduled for September 26. Under this scenario, Pakistan’s qualification would be more straightforward, given the current standings.
Pakistan’s challenge was underscored by their recent defeat against India in Dubai, where they posted 171–5 but fell short as India chased the target in 18.5 overs. Abhishek Sharma’s 74 off 39 and Shubman Gill’s 47 off 28 propelled India to a six-wicket victory, bolstering their NRR advantage.
In another Super Four match, Bangladesh edged out Sri Lanka in a close contest, chasing 169 with four wickets and one ball to spare.
Saif Hassan’s 61 and Towhid Hridoy’s 58 led Bangladesh’s successful chase, while Mustafizur Rahman’s 3-20 was instrumental with the ball. Sri Lanka’s Dasun Shanaka fought valiantly with an unbeaten 64 off 37.
Remaining Fixtures and Their Significance
With these results, qualification scenarios remain fluid, and NRR is poised to play a decisive role in determining the finalists.
The remaining fixtures include Pakistan versus Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi on September 23, India versus Bangladesh in Dubai on September 24, Pakistan versus Bangladesh in Dubai on September 25, and India versus Sri Lanka in Dubai on September 26.
