KEY POINTS
- Afghanistan must win to stay alive; a loss will eliminate them from the tournament.
- Sri Lanka remain unbeaten but risk elimination if they lose big and net run rate dips.
- Pathum Nissanka’s hot form and Sri Lanka’s bowling discipline are key strengths.
- Afghanistan’s spin-heavy attack and Gurbaz’s record vs Sri Lanka could prove decisive.
ABU DHABI: Afghanistan captain Rashid Khan won the toss and chose to bat against Sri Lanka in their decisive Asia Cup 2025 group match at Sheikh Zayed Stadium on Thursday, with Super Four qualification on the line.
With Group B living up to its “group of death” billing, this match could decide everything, or plunge the group into deeper chaos.
The Permutations
Sri Lanka, unbeaten with two wins from two, are top of the table, but not yet safe. Afghanistan, one win and one loss into their campaign, sit third but boast the best net run rate in the group. If Rashid Khan’s men win tonight, they’ll leapfrog into first place. A defeat, however, ends their tournament.
For Sri Lanka, a loss won’t automatically spell elimination, but it could open the door for Bangladesh- currently second, to sneak into the Super Four on net run rate, especially if Afghanistan win by a big margin. It’s a complicated equation, but the math is simple for Afghanistan: win, or go home.
Sri Lanka: Unbeaten but Not Unchallenged
Sri Lanka may be two-for-two, but it hasn’t been plain sailing. Their scrappy win against Hong Kong, China, exposed some vulnerabilities, particularly in their batting order.
While opener Pathum Nissanka has been in sublime touch with consecutive fifties and over 100 runs in the tournament, his partner Kusal Mendis has struggled to get going. The duo has yet to put on a partnership beyond 30.
Kamil Mishara’s emergence at No. 3 has added welcome stability, but with the middle order largely untested, questions remain about how they’ll cope under scoreboard pressure. On the bowling front, however, they’ve been razor-sharp.
Dushmantha Chameera and Nuwan Thushara have led the charge in the Powerplay, supported expertly by the spin duo of Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana in the middle overs. Impressively, Sri Lanka has restricted both of its opponents to under 150, an indication of its control and discipline with the ball.
Afghanistan: Talent Meets Tension
Afghanistan’s campaign has mirrored their reputation: dangerous, but occasionally self-destructive. Their loss to Bangladesh exposed a familiar flaw, fragile middle-order batting under pressure. Despite a promising start to their chase, they collapsed in clusters, continuing a worrying trend. They have never chased a target over 150 against a full-member Asian side, a stat that looms large tonight.
Still, there are positives. Sediqullah Atal has looked composed at the top, while Rahmanullah Gurbaz, who boasts a staggering strike rate of 172.22 against Sri Lanka, is beginning to find his groove. With the ball, Afghanistan’s spin attack remains their biggest weapon.
Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad continue to suffocate opposition in the middle overs, but it’s their seam attack that needs to tighten up, especially in the Powerplay and death.
Team News and Conditions
Both teams are likely to go in unchanged. Afghanistan, despite licking their wounds from the Bangladesh loss, are expected to retain faith in the same XI. Sri Lanka, too, seem set to back their winning combination, although Matheesha Pathirana and Binura Fernando may continue to sit out.
Pitch report: Abu Dhabi has been one of the more batting-friendly surfaces in this tournament, though slower bowlers have still found purchase. Expect a high-scoring game if the dew stays away.
Squads
Afghanistan: Sediqullah Atal, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Ibrahim Zadran, Gulbadin Naib, Mohammad Nabi, Azmatullah Omarzai, Karim Janat, Rashid Khan (capt), Noor Ahmad, AM Ghazanfar, Fazalhaq Farooqi
Sri Lanka: Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka (capt), Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dushmantha Chameera, Maheesh Theekshana, Nuwan Thushara
