Key Points
- Indus at Guddu likely to rise from high to very high flood level in 24 hours
- Chenab at Panjnad in high flood with gradual fall forecast
- Moderate rain expected over northern catchments in coming days
ISLAMABAD: The Indus and Chenab rivers remain at high flood levels, with meteorological forecasts pointing to a fresh spell of moderate rainfall this week, according to official bulletins released on Sunday.
The Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), Lahore, reported that the Indus at Guddu is expected to remain in high flood and may reach a very high flood level within the next 24 hours. Sukkur is also forecast to attain high flood levels in the coming days, while Kotri remains in the low flood zone. The Chenab River at Panjnad is in high flood but is projected to ease to medium flood within 36 hours.
The Sutlej River at Ganda Singh Wala and Head Islam is in medium flood, while the Ravi at Sidhnai and Sulemanki on the Sutlej remain at the low flood level.
Isolated thunderstorms
The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s National Weather Forecasting Centre cautioned that weak monsoon currents and a westerly wave are likely to produce scattered rain and isolated thunderstorms over several areas during the week ahead. The rain forecast areas include Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Kohat, and Gujranwala divisions in the next two days. It added that intense showers could temporarily raise flows in local streams and nullahs of KP, Murree, Galliyat, and Kashmir by mid-week.
Relief officials said the situation, though critical in parts of Sindh and southern Punjab, is showing signs of stability. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) confirmed that more than 45,000 residents have been evacuated from vulnerable zones, with provincial agencies maintaining shelters and medical camps. The Punjab PDMA stated that tributaries are receding, reducing pressure on barrages.
Limited buffer
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reported that Tarbela Dam is at its full conservation level of 1,550 feet; likewise, Mangla reservoir is 94 per cent full, leaving a limited buffer for further inflows. “The river system is under strain, but Chenab and Sutlej trends indicate gradual improvement,” an IRSA spokesperson told state media.
The NDMA stated that relief goods, tents, and food rations are being distributed with support from the military and aid partners. “We remain in an active response phase, but we expect a shift towards recovery as major rivers begin to normalise later this week,” the authority said.
Officials stressed that while flood risks persist, forecasts indicate an improving outlook provided the upcoming rains stay within moderate limits.
