Key Points
- Meteorological Department forecasts a fresh westerly wave later next week
- Extremely high flood at Panjnad, with Guddu and Sindhnai
- Relief and rescue operations continue in flood-affected Sindh, Punjab, and KP
- NDMA and provincial bodies say damage assessment underway as waters recede
ISLAMABAD: Except for three critical flood flashpoints, the overall situation is gradually returning to normalcy after battering most parts of Pakistan with unprecedented monsoon rains and consequent floods.
According to the Friday bulletins of the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the country’s river systems are gradually stabilising after an intense and prolonged monsoon spell. Still, it cautioned that “critical flood risks” remain in place at three locations.
A “very high flood level” is expected in the River Indus at Guddu between September 14 and 15. Its discharge report also confirmed an “extremely high flood” at Panjnad on the Chenab and a “high flood” in Ravi at Sindhnai, while the Sukkur Barrage remains in “medium flood” range.
The bulletin stated that “no significant weather system is expected during the week ahead (September 13-19).” However, a fresh westerly wave is forecast to bring moderate rainfall over the upper catchments of all major rivers between September 16 and 19.
Rescue and Relief Operations Continue
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said in its daily situation update that Army units, provincial rescue services, and the Pakistan Red Crescent remain active in inundated districts of Sindh and South Punjab, providing evacuation support, medical camps, and food rations.
According to Sindh’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), more than 25,000 people have been shifted to safer places in Sukkur, Ghotki, and Khairpur districts over the past week. Punjab’s PDMA reported that its Rescue 1122 teams have evacuated families stranded near Panjnad and provided temporary shelter in government schools.
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said in a statement on September 11 that relief operations “will continue for several weeks” as many affected families have lost homes and livelihoods due to river overflows.
Regional Impact
Sindh has borne the brunt of the recent river surges, particularly around the Sukkur and Guddu barrages. According to local irrigation authorities, embankment strengthening works are underway to contain further breaches. In Punjab, low-lying areas along the Ravi and Sutlej near Okara and Bahawalnagar remain inundated. Nevertheless, authorities report that the water is receding gradually.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s PDMA reported localised flooding in Nowshera earlier in the season, but said the Kabul River is currently flowing at “normal” discharge levels.
Climate Lens
Meteorological experts say the latest floods are part of a broader trend of intensifying monsoon patterns. “This season has been marked by longer and more intense rainfall spells, with river systems reaching critical thresholds more frequently,” Dr. Zaheer Babar said in the FFD bulletin.
Environmental analysts note that such extremes are consistent with global climate change models, which predict increased variability in South Asian monsoon systems. Climate Change Minister Musadik Malik already predicted 30 per cent more rain during the next monsoon. He told a press briefing the other day that about 2.5 million people had been evacuated nationwide, with federal, provincial and military agencies coordinating relief. He confirmed the death toll had crossed 930. NDMA Chairman Lt Gen Inam Haider Malik added that over 30,000 tents and food packs had been distributed, with special focus on Sindh, where 150,000 people moved to safety.
Beginning of Return to Normalcy
Despite the warnings at Panjnad, Guddu, and Sindhnai, the PMD emphasised that “most reservoirs and barrages are within safe operating ranges,” including Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, and Mangla. Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs were recorded near-maximum conservation levels, ensuring adequate water storage for irrigation and power generation.
The FFD highlighted that in the event of a situation “gradually heading back to normalcy,” continued monitoring and preparedness are essential given the unpredictable nature of this year’s monsoon season.
