KEY POINTS
- Climate change threatens Pakistan’s tobacco belt with unpredictable weather patterns.
- Heavy rains and sudden heat waves damage fragile tobacco crops.
- Swabi contributes 60 per cent of Pakistan’s cigarette tobacco production.
- Per-acre yield dropped from 1,538 kilograms to just 880.
- Farmers once found profit; now they struggle to survive.
- Tobacco industry contributed Rs. 150 billion in federal taxes in FY 2023-2024.
SWABI, Pakistan: In the small, tranquil village of Razarh—about 10 kilometres north of Swabi district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—fields of lush green leaves once swayed under the spring sun, carrying the promise of a rich harvest and steady income.
Now the same fields speak of uncertainty, anxiety, and change.
“Tobacco is not only a crop for us, it has been our livelihood for the last seven decades,” says Sher Afzal Khan, a farmer in his late fifties from Razarh. His weathered hands bear the marks of years spent under the open sky.
He gazes over his land, where each plant carries the weight of his family’s survival. Eleven people—his seven children, his parents, and himself—depend on these fragile leaves, which for them are truly the bread and butter of life.
Swabi’s golden leaves
Swabi is known as the tobacco belt of Pakistan. Its fertile soil, gentle slopes, and favourable climate have long made it ideal for tobacco cultivation.
For generations, farmers here have supplied raw leaf to cigarette manufacturing companies as well as national and international markets.
Tobacco has shaped the local economy—sustaining thousands of families, creating seasonal jobs, and generating billions in government taxes.
But this proud tradition is now threatened, not by shrinking markets or waning demand, but by a more formidable force: climate change.
Weathering the storms
Farmers say the seasons are no longer predictable. Rainfall patterns have shifted, planting schedules are disrupted, and harvest times have become a roll of the dice.
“From February onwards, the weather used to be stable,” explains Zahir Ali, a tobacco grower from Yar Hussain Dagai village.
“Now, heavy rains come when we least expect them, flooding our fields. And just when the crop needs gentle warmth, sudden heat waves strike. The leaves dry too quickly, their quality suffers, and production has fallen by 30 to 40 per cent.”
Tobacco is not only a crop for us, it has been our livelihood for the last seven decades.” – Sher Afzal Khan, a local
Recently, torrential rains once again hit Swabi, leaving standing crops badly damaged. For tobacco farmers, timing is everything. Seeds are sown in nurseries in early winter, then transplanted to fields in late February or early March.
The plants need regular but moderate watering. Too much rain can flatten them, while too little can leave them stunted.
The final weeks before harvest—last week of April or first week of May—are critical as the leaf develops its texture, colour, and nicotine content. But with the weather swinging between extremes, months of labour can be gone up in smoke in just a few days.
From glory to strain
Pakistan is among the top ten tobacco-producing countries in the world. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa produces 73 per cent of the national crop, and Swabi’s Flue Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is considered among the finest, prized for its flavour and quality. It is used in cigarettes, cigars, snuff, and hookah blends.
Nearly all the FCV tobacco used in Pakistan’s cigarette production—98 per cent—is grown in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with Swabi alone contributing 60 per cent.
According to an official of the Pakistan Tobacco Board, around 32,500 acres (13,154 hectares) in Swabi are planted with FCV tobacco each year.
Mardan follows with 20 per cent of the share, then Charsadda with eight per cent, while smaller amounts are cultivated in Nowshera, Buner, Mansehra, and Malakand.
Now, heavy rains come when we least expect them, flooding our fields. And just when the crop needs gentle warmth, sudden heat waves strike. The leaves dry too quickly, their quality suffers, and production has fallen by 30 to 40 per cent.” – Zahir Ali, a tobacco grower
Data from the Pakistan Tobacco Board shows a steady decline. In 2019–20, per-acre yield was 24 per cent less than in 2013–14.
Farmers insist that the reality is worse: three years ago, average yield stood at 1,538 kilograms per acre. This year, it has plunged to just 880 kilograms.
Falling on hard times
For farmers like Wahdatullah from Razarh, tobacco once meant security. “A decade ago, I knew the crop would bring a profit. I could cover all household expenses and still had money left.
Once, I even bought gold earrings for my daughter from the harvest money. That is how good it was,” he recalls. “Now, things have changed. We still work the same land but no longer get the same reward.”
The statistics back him up.
Meanwhile, in the fiscal year 2023-2024, the tobacco industry contributed Rs. 150 billion in federal taxes. The federal government has set ambitious revenue targets for the year ahead, but climate disruptions threaten to upset its plans.
Economists warn that the problem stretches beyond Swabi’s farmers. “Tobacco is one of the rare crops where both farmers and the government gain,” says Dr. Ayesha Nageen, who teaches economics at the Women University Swabi, with a special expertise in the tobacco industry.
“When production drops due to climate change, the ripple effects spread far—lower exports, reduced tax revenue, and fewer jobs in related sectors. The fiscal impact could be felt well beyond Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.”
Tobacco beyond borders
Pakistan also exports tobacco. In 2023, the country sold over $66 million worth of tobacco leaf abroad, compared to just $9 million in imports.
Major buyers include Yemen, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Disruptions in supply risk not only local livelihoods but also Pakistan’s position in the global market.
When production drops due to climate change, the ripple effects spread far—lower exports, reduced tax revenue, fewer jobs in related sectors. The fiscal impact could be felt well beyond Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.” – Dr. Ayesha Nageen, Women University Swabi
The Pakistan Tobacco Board has set minimum indicative prices for the 2025 harvest: Rs. 545 per kilogram for plains and Rs. 615.9 per kilogram for sub-mountainous areas for FCV tobacco.
Other varieties range from Rs. 262.6 to Rs. 388.9 per kilogram. On paper, these are increases compared to last year, but farmers say they make little difference.
“The rates have gone up,” says Sher Afzal, “but so has everything else—fertilisers, pesticides, kiln wood, labour. And if the weather damages the crop, the leaves weigh less, so we earn even less. How can we survive like this?”
High stakes farming
Even a slight drop in yield can push farmers into debt. Many borrow money at the start of the season for seeds, inputs, and labour, expecting to repay once they sell their crop.
But when prices fail to cover costs, they borrow again next year—trapped in a cycle of dependence.
Swabi’s plight is not unique. Climate change is battering agriculture across Pakistan, from wheat in Punjab to dates in Sindh.
But here, where the local economy revolves around a single crop, all their eggs are in one basket, and the stakes are especially high.
Beneath uncertain skies
The way forward is clear: farmers need support to adapt. This could mean modern irrigation to manage irregular rainfall, heat-resistant seed varieties, strong crop insurance, and fairer pricing structures. Without reforms, the next generation may abandon tobacco farming altogether.
For now, the farmers keep planting, praying for kinder skies. But as Sher Afzal walks through his fields, his face shows more caution than hope.
The green leaves still flutter in the wind, yet he knows their fate—and his family’s—rests on forces far beyond his control.
“It is all in God’s hands now,” he says softly. “We do our work, we take care of the crop, but if the sky turns against us, what can we do?”
