Key points
- EU boosts border control via deals with transit countries
- Greece proposes stricter laws amid rising Mediterranean arrivals
- Experts urge legal migration paths over tough deterrence
ISLAMABAD: Irregular migration to Europe declined in the first half of 2025, continuing a downward trend from 2024.
EU border agency Frontex reported a 20 per cent drop in arrivals, largely due to strengthened cooperation with key transit countries.
Despite this decline, migration experts warn that irregular migration will persist as conflict, poverty, and instability continue to push people to leave their home countries. Tougher border security is prompting migrants to take riskier routes and rely more heavily on smugglers, according to Reuters.
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Frontex figures show that irregular crossings fell to 240,000 in 2024 from over 300,000 in both 2022 and 2023. Still, not all routes have seen a decrease. A new corridor across the Mediterranean from Libya to Greece has emerged, with over 7,000 arrivals on Crete in 2025 alone. In response, Greece has proposed new laws to criminalise illegal entry and temporarily ban asylum claims.
Shifting migration patterns
Jennifer Vallentine of the Mixed Migration Centre noted that migration patterns shift as enforcement increases: “When one route closes, another tends to open.”
The EU has long invested in externalising border control, striking deals with Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, and Turkey to block migration routes. These deals include funding, surveillance support, and equipment for local authorities to intercept boats and return migrants.
Arrivals via the Central Mediterranean route from North Africa to Italy and Malta dropped by 58 per cent between 2023 and 2024, as more vessels were intercepted. However, this has led to increased activity on other routes, such as the Atlantic corridor from West Africa to the Canary Islands.
Dangerous conditions
Efforts to restrict the Western Balkan route — a key pathway to Western Europe — have also intensified. While Frontex reported a 78 per cent drop in detections there, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) registered only a 16 per cent fall, suggesting migrants are travelling more covertly to avoid being caught.
Higher smuggler fees, faster night-time travel, and fewer rest stops highlight how migrants are increasingly forced into dangerous conditions.
The EU plans to triple its border control budget to €81 billion in the 2028–2034 period. But experts argue that deterrence alone is not a sustainable solution.
“Migration is inevitable and can be beneficial,” said Vallentine. “Without regular, safe pathways, irregular migration and smuggling will continue to thrive.”
