Key points
- Securing deal in time “seems nearly impossible”: CSIS India Chair Rossow
- US demands greater market access
- US agricultural products could undercut Indian farmers
ISLAMABAD: As the window of opportunity for India to seal a trade deal with the US closes on August 1, New Delhi appears to be unable to meet the looming deadline.
Months of intense negotiations appear unlikely to produce a trade deal between the US and India, despite US President Donald Trump having teased one for months as “coming soon”.
According to CNBC News, analysts say India has a few bargaining chips in its negotiation arsenal with the US.
India is also seeking more trade deals with other countries to give it leverage, both at the negotiating table and in navigating global economic shocks.
The South China Morning Post recently asked three people familiar with the situation about the prospects of a deal.
“Total mess”
One person described the current state of discussions as a “total mess” behind the scenes as Trump and his trade representative, Jameison Greer, continue to push for a pact that would secure greater market access for American produce, dairy, and poultry in India.
Rick Rossow, Chair in US-India Policy Studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, was quoted as saying,
“Bullish comments”
“Despite bullish comments by India’s trade minister, securing a deal by August 1 seems nearly impossible.”
He said that while “negotiations seemed to move pretty fast in the early days”, the closing stages are “always the most difficult”.
Indian Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh on Thursday told the Indian Parliament that negotiations with the US were “active” and revolved around “enhanced mutual market access, reduction of tariffs and non-tariff barriers and closer integration of supply chains”, South China Morning Post reported.
A White House official was quoted as saying that “the administration continues to engage productively with Indian officials on trade matters”.
Rajesh Agarwal, India’s chief negotiator and Commerce Department special secretary, was in Washington last week for trade talks but the July 14-17 negotiation ended without any announcement.
Hefty levies
This was the fifth round of talks since April 2, when Trump threatened 26 per cent reciprocal tariffs on Indian imports, citing India’s hefty levies on US products and non-tariff barriers.
No talks are expected in the coming weeks. The Indian team is expected to return to Washington only in mid-August, well beyond the timeline earlier set to announce an initial framework.
