A shadow war is unfolding across the rugged terrain of Balochistan, where the fault lines of global and regional conflicts are shifting silently yet perilously — potentially fanning the flames of a broader geopolitical storm in South Asia.
Beyond the media glare, a web of secret networks — linking cross-border financing and militant separatism — is quietly reshaping the security landscape of the region. At the heart of this covert war lies India’s premier intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). It is operating through militant proxies — such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) — to destabilise Pakistan internally and sabotage the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The theory that India sponsors subversive movements in Balochistan is no longer a conspiracy theory. The facts — from confessional statements to financial transactions — paint a grim picture of state-sponsored hybrid warfare.
Doval doctrine unveiled
The intentions of India were made unmistakeable by a public statement from its National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, in 2014. “You do one more Mumbai, and you lose Balochistan,” he warned, advocating a doctrinal shift towards asymmetric, non-conventional war.
In one form or another, it was clear articulation of what was soon termed as the Doval Doctrine: the use of proxies and psychological operations as instruments of Indian foreign policy.
Since then, Pakistan has consistently blamed India for arming separatist forces to conduct low-intensity warfare — a slow burn that has particularly been the case in Balochistan.
Confession and coordination
The strongest proof came in March 2016 — when Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav, a senior Indian Navy officer operating under the pseudonym Hussein Mubarak Patel — was apprehended in Pakistan. His mission involved espionage, sabotage, and the recruitment of assets to carry out attacks in Balochistan and Karachi.
Jadhav, who had been sent on deputation by RAW, had confessed that the RAW had organised activities to destroy Pakistan’s critical infrastructure and carried out attacks to damage the Mehran Naval Base and the natural gas pipelines at Sui, according to the press briefing by then Inter-Services Public Relations Director General Lieutenant General Asim Saleem Bajwa and the counter by Pakistan in the International Court of Justice.
It was also revealed in the counter that he had been operating from Iranian soil and was backed up by other RAW operatives such as Sub-Inspector Rakesh aka Shaikh Rizwan Hussain. He was guided on strategy by his handlers including Anil Kumar Gupta and Alok Joshi who are both senior officials of the RAW. In a video clip released by the ISPR on July 3, 2025, the Jadhav admitted, “I was basically the man for Anil Kumar Gupta who is the joint secretary RAW.”
Jadhav’s capture not only confirmed Pakistan’s allegations but lifted the veil on a wider intelligence network working across borders.
Sabotaging CPEC projects
The News International—one of the largest circulated English dailies of Pakistan— reported on May 11 this year that following the Jadhav episode, further intelligence unearthed the creation of a Special Clandestine Cell within RAW in 2015, operating directly under the Indian Prime Minister’s Office.
Set to specifically sabotage the multi-billion-dollar CPEC project, the cell was reportedly given a budget of 500 million dollars to play a coordinating role in the sabotage, according to 2015 statement of Pakistan’s Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Zubair Hayat.
These were the activities that entailed the transmission of funds and logistics to terror groups through Indian consulates in Afghanistan namely at Jalalabad, Kandahar and Mazar-e-Sharif.
The missions involved the recruitment of Baloch Sub-Nationalists (BSNs) to take part in attacks on the infrastructure related to the CPEC, impede special economic zones and power stations, and strike at the digital infrastructure in Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir.
Research article published by Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad titled India’s shadow war in Pakistan states, “This pattern is part of the strategy of shadow warfare sponsored by India/R&AW, which is beyond the capacity of guerilla-tactic fighters. It serves a dual purpose: first, to undermine strategic partnership between Pakistan and China; and second, to challenge the CPEC route that passes through Gilgit-Baltistan”.
RAW interests in Balochistan were not only ideological but also geo-economic.
RAW backs separatist alliance
According to a dossier submitted by Pakistan to the United Nations, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and the United Nations Security Council, RAW actively worked to unite Baloch separatist circles in 2019. It played a central role in bridging the gap between BLA, Baloch Republican Army (BRA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), ultimately leading to the formation of Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) — an alliance with coordinated military and propaganda wings.
Exiled leaders of BSN like Brahamdagh Bugti, Harbiyar Marri, Javed Mengal, and Zamran Marri were found to be funded and supported logistically to organise international conferences and online campaigns to defame Pakistan. In one instance, BSN leaders received $4 million reportedly via the Indian embassy in Kabul and the transaction is verified through the formal receipt signed by the Ambassador Gautam Mukhopadhaya. This instance along with the trail of funding to Baloch insurgents were brought to light by Pakistani media.
Targeting Chinese interests
On 23rd November 2018, three BLA militants carried out an assault against the Chinese Consulate in Karachi. The operation which was thwarted by security agencies was connected to Aslam Achu — a BLA commander of Majeed Brigade. Interestingly, Achu was in a private hospital in New Delhi arranged by RAW at the time of the attack.
Anurag Singh, a RAW officer who was given half a million dollars, was also involved in another joint bomb attack by BLA and BLF on Pearl Continental Hotel Gwadar in May 2019, then ISPR Director General had disclosed this in a press briefing.
In another operation, BLF leader Dr. Allah Nazar Baloch visited India using a fake identity created by the RAW. These actions were part of a broader strategy to drive a wedge between Pakistan and China relations by targeting China’s interests in Pakistan.
Money trail to BLA
In a joint media conference on November 14, 2020, then Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and ISPR chief Major General Babar Iftikhar presented irrefutable evidence of Indian funding to Baloch separatists.
From 2020 to 2023, more than 4.8 million dollars were traced to BLA and other insurgent units through shell companies such as Infosys (India) and Bostanic Trading (Dubai), funnelled through the Petrichor Foundation (South Korea). This funding was used to finance the Karachi Stock Exchange assault in June 2020. The vehicle used in the attack was bought only some days prior and the attack was traced back to the channels of RAW.
In a press briefing, the DG ISPR confirmed that 66 training camps in Afghanistan and 21 in India were being used to train militants. The Sarhadi Leva Camp in Kandahar was also provided with 30 million dollars to accommodate and train BSNs.
Documented but ignored
The evidence is not speculative; it is documented, confessed, and digitally traceable. Yet, the international response has been deafeningly silent — perhaps due to India’s growing economic and strategic clout.
Nevertheless, the ground realities tell a different story: This is a war on Pakistan, but one being fought under the radar, outside the provisions of international law, United Nations Charter and norms of state sovereignty.
It is imperative just for both Pakistan and the international community to examine the cost of turning a blind eye to state-sponsored terrorism masked as strategic policy.
This war may be fought in the shadows — but its repercussions are real, bloody, and dangerously destabilising.
To be continued…
