ISLAMABAD: A preliminary report by Pakistan’s Meteorological Department (PMD) has concluded that the deadly flash floods that struck the mountainous Swat Valley on Friday, June 27, were caused by a combination of intense rainfall and glacial melt in the upper catchments of the Swat River.
At least 13 people were killed and over 20 injured when a sudden flash flood ripped through Swat Valley on 27 June, PMD stated in its preliminary report.
The disaster, which struck at the peak of the summer tourism season, was possibly worsened by melting glaciers and unstable glacial lakes, PMD stated.
The weather department’s findings highlight the growing threat of climate change-induced disasters in northern Pakistan, particularly in the Hindu Kush region.
The department stated that rising temperatures are contributing to the formation of unstable glacial lakes and heightening the possibility of sudden, destructive floods during the monsoon season.
The PMD said satellite and ground-based data confirmed that on June 27, rainfall intensity exceeded 90 mm in some areas within just an hour, with isolated peaks above 100 mm.
Saidu Sharif recorded 46 mm of rain, while Malam Jabba received 33 mm. Although Kalam recorded only 3 mm, upstream areas near the river’s glacial sources witnessed severe precipitation, causing rapid runoff into the river, according to the PMD report.
According to the PMD, the flash flood occurred at the height of the summer holiday season when tourists had thronged the valley from across Pakistan.
Most of the victims were families from Punjab, visiting the region following the Eid holidays. Many were caught off guard as the river swelled quickly and overflowed its banks, sweeping away people, vehicles, and temporary riverside camps.
The PMD report stated that while the primary cause was extreme rainfall, contributions from glacial meltwater and pressure from partially breached glacial lakes may have intensified the flood’s severity.
The river, fed by snowfields and glaciers in Gabral, Usho, and Utror valleys, is increasingly vulnerable to such disasters due to rising global temperatures and the resulting formation of unstable glacial lakes.
According to PMD, the geography of the valley further exacerbated the situation. The steep slopes and narrow river channels between Bahrain, Madyan, and Khwazakhela created a bottleneck effect, intensifying the flow’s speed and destructive force. The lack of floodplain zoning and unchecked construction along riverbanks added to the damage, PMD claimed.
At least 56 houses were damaged—six of them completely washed away—while several key road sections and bridges, including the Bahrain–Kalam Road and infrastructure near Khwazakhela, sustained major damage.
Over 60 people were rescued, many of them stranded on temporary islands formed by the flood. One child remains missing as of 30 June, PMD stated.
Swat River Flash Flood Event – 27th June 2025According to the preliminary report, the weather department had issued an early warning on June 25, alerting authorities to the likelihood of severe rainfall and a potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF).
These alerts were shared with the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) and local administrations.
However, the report noted that challenges persist in reaching tourists and temporary riverbank dwellers, many of whom may not have received or understood the urgency of the warnings.
The PMD recommends immediate removal of encroachments along riverbanks, improved dissemination of alerts through SMS, hotel briefings, mosques, and community radio, and stricter enforcement of seasonal bans on gatherings near rivers during forecasted heavy rain.
The department urged the installation of automated rainfall and river-level sensors in Kalam, Bahrain, and Khwazakhela, along with the development of flood hazard maps and better emergency preparedness.
Long-term measures should include climate-resilient land-use planning and integration of hydrometeorological data into district-level decision-making.
The Swat Valley, known for its natural beauty, remains highly vulnerable to flash flooding. The PMD warned that such events may become more frequent and severe as climate change continues to alter the region’s glacial and rainfall patterns.
