Key points
- Killings will make it “almost” impossible for Iran to build weapons: Israel’s envoy to France
- Experts say attacks can only set the programme back, not stop it
- CIA says Iran’s nuclear programme was “severely damaged”
ISLAMABAD: During the 12-day war with Iran, Israel was able to kill at least 14 scientists in an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear know-how.
What does this mean for Iran’s nuclear programme, how long could these attacks set it back, and how justified was it under international humanitarian law?
In an interview with The Associated Press, Israel’s ambassador to France said the killings will make it “almost” impossible for Iran to build weapons from whatever nuclear infrastructure and material may have survived nearly two weeks of Israeli airstrikes and massive bunker-busting bombs dropped by US stealth bombers.
“The fact that the whole group disappeared is basically throwing back the programme by a number of years, by quite a number of years,” Ambassador Joshua Zarka said.
However, experts say this can only set it back, not stop it.
CIA assessment
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe on Wednesday said the agency obtained evidence indicating Iran’s nuclear program was “severely damaged” by US strikes, likely setting the programme back years—a statement supporting President Donald Trump’s earlier claims, despite a reported US intelligence assessment that found the bombings only set Iran’s program back by a few months.
According to AP, nuclear analysts say Iran has other scientists who can take their place. European governments say that military force alone cannot eradicate Iran’s nuclear know-how, which is why they want a negotiated solution to put concerns about the Iranian programme to rest.
“Strikes cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has acquired over several decades, nor any regime ambition to deploy that knowledge to build a nuclear weapon,” UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy told lawmakers in the House of Commons.
Who was killed?
Chemists, physicists, engineers were among those killed, according to the American state news agency.
Zarka told AP that Israeli strikes killed at least 14 physicists and nuclear engineers, top Iranian scientific leaders who “basically had everything in their mind.”
“They have substitutes in maybe the next league down, and they’re not as highly qualified, but they will get the job done eventually,” said Fitzpatrick, now an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think tank.
Legality of Israeli actions
International humanitarian law bans the intentional killing of civilians and non-combatants.
“My own take: These scientists were working for a rogue regime that has consistently called for the elimination of Israel, helping it to develop weapons that will allow that threat to take place. As such, they are legitimate targets,” Steven R David, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University told AP.
He said Nazi German and Japanese leaders who fought Allied nations during World War II “would not have hesitated to kill the scientists working on the Manhattan Project” that fathered the world’s first atomic weapons.
Laurie Blank, a specialist in humanitarian law at Emory Law School, said it’s too early to say whether Israel’s decapitation campaign was legal.
“As external observers, we don’t have all the relevant facts about the nature of the scientists’ role and activities or the intelligence that Israel has,” she said by email to AP. “As a result, it is not possible to make any definitive conclusions.”
