Monitoring Desk
PARIS: The nuclear warfare nightmare has surged to prominence as Russia seeks a breakthrough in the Ukraine war, highlighting the erosion of the Cold War global security planning.
With Russia on the back foot in its offensive, the military stalemate has raised fears that Russia could resort to its nuclear arsenal to achieve a breakthrough in Ukraine.
Russia, along with the United States, Britain, China, and France, is the five recognized nuclear powers and a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
“It is the first time a nuclear power while using its status, has waged a conventional war under the nuclear weapons’ shadow cast,” a former NATO deputy secretary-general, Camille Grand, said.
“One might have imagined that rogue nations would adopt such an attitude, but suddenly it is one of the two major nuclear powers, and the UN Security Council member,” he told AFP, insisting the actual use of nuclear weapons remains “improbable.”
Russia aims breakthrough in Ukraine
Currently, the strategic and moral nuclear “taboo” that emerged after the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II in 1945 still holds. But rhetoric massively escalated.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian TV broadcasts have repeatedly discussed nuclear attacks on Western cities like New York or Paris.
One former Russian diplomat seeking anonymity warned that if Russian President Vladimir Putin felt the existence of Russia was threatened, “he will press the nuclear button.”
Across the Atlantic, United States (US) President Joe Biden warned in October of a likely “Armageddon” hanging over the world.
“The most breathtaking event of the past half century is one that did not occur,” Thomas Schelling, Nobel-winning economist and strategy expert wrote in 2007.
In 2002, the United States quit the crucial Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty it had signed with the Soviet Union in 1972, which maintained the nuclear balance of power.
Other important agreements fell away in the following years, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty Washington dropped in 2019, blaming Moscow for not complying.
“Regarding disarmament, it is all in ruins, apart from New Start,” Cammile Grand said, referring to the Barack Obama-era deal with Russia to reduce the numbers of missiles, bombers, warheads, and launchers.
Pakistan, India, North Korea, and the five recognized nuclear powers also have nuclear weapons. At the same time, Israel is widely doubted to do so while having never officially acknowledged having the arsenal.
A French diplomat reported, “extremely aggressive nuclear rhetoric” from Russia and “disdain” for the treaty.
“We saw a change in Russia’s attitude, which had historically supported the NPT,” the diplomat added.
The diplomat said China was “very vocal,” offering a “crude denunciation” of the US-UK-Australia AUKUS Pacific alliance that will deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra.
Beijing claimed that the alliance threatened further nuclear proliferation while failing to “lift doubts about the opacity of its nuclear doctrine or the speed at which its arsenal is growing.”
Ukraine’s invasion of a state that willingly gave up nuclear weapons by its nuclear-armed neighbor has surged fears of proliferation.
