ISLAMABAD: The recent incident in Pahalgam, followed by India’s hasty finger-pointing at Pakistan and its disregard for the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, are not isolated provocations but calculated moves in a larger strategic design.
Defence and policy experts at a high-level forum in Islamabad view these acts as part of a recurring pattern of aggression, crafted to tip the regional balance in India’s favour.
According to policy minds, the timing, media spin, and swift geopolitical moves reveal a coordinated and deliberate approach from New Delhi.
Hosted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), the session titled “The Pahalgam Attack: Dissecting the Motives and Strategic Fallout” brought together a panel of experts who argued that the pattern behind the Pahalgam incident echoes a broader, long-term strategy.
Among the key concerns was India’s response — such as suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and sealing the Attari border crossing — despite the absence of concrete evidence or identified assailants.
Dr. Asma Shakir Khawaja, Executive Director at the Centre for International Strategic Studies AJK, framed the attack as a “purposeful manoeuvre” crafted to inject communal tension into the Kashmir conflict.
She noted the recurring alignment of such incidents with significant foreign visits to India — a tactic, she suggested, to distract international attention and shift narratives.
Khawaja highlighted the influence of hyper-nationalist rhetoric under Prime Minister Modi, emphasising its role in fuelling Islamophobia and attempting to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
Adding historical weight, Sheikh Waleed Rasool referenced the Ajit Doval doctrine, underscoring how repeated events like Pahalgam fit into a pattern of provocations timed for maximum strategic impact.
“This is no random act,” he remarked. “It’s a layered strategy — regional, international, and psychological — all rolled into one.”
Dr. Nauman Sattar expanded the discussion by placing the incident within a post-9/11 strategic lens, arguing that such attacks are regularly leveraged to cast Pakistan as a regional villain while consolidating nationalist sentiment within India.
He warned that the ripple effects could jeopardise any progress toward normalisation and inflame regional tensions for months to come.
Said Nazir highlighted a more insidious motive: to fragment Kashmir’s remaining political identity and autonomy by eroding its Muslim leadership.
He cautioned that India’s veiled threats to revoke long-standing treaties like the Indus Waters Treaty represent a direct assault on Pakistan’s strategic and economic stability.
The panel concluded with a call for Pakistan to adopt a “mature, strategic, and unwavering” posture.
The experts argued that this involves a multidimensional response — challenging disinformation with facts, revealing the broader agenda behind such incidents, and strengthening diplomatic ties to bring Pakistan’s perspective to global forums.
In his remarks, IPS Chairman Khalid Rahman emphasised the importance of scrutinising India’s narrative.
He noted the striking speed and coordination of media messaging post-attack, calling it “a textbook case of narrative engineering designed to manipulate public perception and steer regional discourse.”
