ISLAMABAD: Thirty-nine-year-old Naila Aslam—who hails from Attock, Pakistan’s northwestern district about 80 kilometres from Islamabad—recalls a childhood with much harsher winters than today.
However, over the years, she noticed a significant weather change, with winters becoming shorter and milder: a clear indication of the broader impact of climate change.
“Back then, the cold was so biting that my mother had to layer us up with heavy clothing, and heaters were always on in our rooms,” Naila recalls. “Rain was a constant companion. But now, winters are shorter and milder.”
Sara Adil, 23, agrees with Naila Aslam.
Belonging to Chakwal—located approximately 90 kilometres southeast of Islamabad in the Pothohar region—she studies at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.
“The region’s arid, often barren landscapes, which were once more vibrant during the rainy seasons, may become a distant memory for future generations,” she fears.
Unchecked deforestation and rapid urbanisation of fertile lands, she believes, are not only polluting the environment but also accelerating climate change.
“The winters of my youth were marked by verdant landscapes, but with deforestation and housing societies encroaching on fertile land, I worry future generations may never experience such beauty. These changes are adding fuel to the fire, harming the environment and worsening climate conditions.”
Grim statistics
A study, conducted by Sadia Jabeen—an assistant professor at the Management Sciences Department at Ibadat International University Islamabad—reveals a concerning 169.51 per cent decline in agricultural land over the past 20 years.
This alarming trend highlights the impact of unplanned infrastructure development and the unchecked growth of urban areas.
The winters of my youth were marked by verdant landscapes, but with deforestation and housing societies encroaching on fertile land, I worry future generations may never experience such beauty. These changes are adding fuel to the fire, harming the environment and worsening climate conditions.” – Sara Adil.
Air pollution in major cities of Punjab, such as Lahore, Faisalabad, and Gujranwala, is getting out of hand.
Recent data shows that air quality often exceeds dangerous levels, with Lahore’s air quality reaching over 270 µg/m³, well above the safe limit of 100 µg/m³.
This has created serious health risks, leading authorities to take steps like closing schools and setting up “smog war rooms.”
The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) highlights these worsening conditions, with air pollution being a thorn in the side of these cities.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department stated in a report that Punjab is experiencing a dramatic shift in its weather patterns, with winters melting away and temperatures rising earlier than anticipated.
During this winter, Punjab witnessed a dry spell, resulting in warmer days and a diminished winter chill.
A World Bank report indicates that the average temperature in Pakistan has increased by 0.5°C from 1960 to the present, with projections predicting an additional rise of 1.3°C to 1.5°C by 2050.
Increasing global temperatures
These changing weather patterns are not isolated to Pakistan but are part of a global phenomenon.
Climate change refers to significant and lasting shifts in regional weather patterns over extended periods. The Earth is currently undergoing rapid climate change, with global temperatures rising steadily.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observatory in a report stated that the planet has warmed at an average rate of 0.15°C to 0.20°C per decade between 1975 and 2024.
The current tilt of Earth’s axis is causing colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experiences warmer conditions. This shift is altering global weather patterns.” – Dr. Iqbal Khan.
Weather monitoring agencies including the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service, the United Kingdom’s Meteorology Office, Japan’s weather agency and the private Berkeley Earth team announced that in 2024, global temperatures reached an all-time high, surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, a threshold that raises concerns about the long-term impacts on the climate.
A nation in climate peril
Pakistan, ranked as the seventh most affected country by climate change, according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021 by Germanwatch, exemplifies this trend.
Over the past two decades, the country has experienced noticeable temperature shifts, including rising average temperatures and more frequent and intense heatwaves, particularly in southern regions like Sindh and Balochistan.
These changes underscore the urgency of addressing the issue, as the country faces increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, from heatwaves that take a toll to destructive flooding, impacting both the environment and public health.
Dr. Iqbal Khan, former director of Environmental Sciences at Mirpur University of Science and Technology explains the scientific basis for these climate changes.
“The current tilt of Earth’s axis is causing colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experiences warmer conditions,” he says. “This shift is altering global weather patterns.”
Dr. Iqbal further elaborates on the reasons behind the reduced cold and increased heat since the 1980s, explaining that global construction booms have significantly altered wind patterns.
According to the World Climatological Database, the average temperature in Pakistan has increased by approximately 0.9°C between 1980 and 2021, contributing to shorter, milder winters.
Traditional winter rains, which typically began at the start of the season, have been delayed.” – Rashid Bilal.
He predicts further changes in the climate of Azad Kashmir and Potohar.
“The rainy season, which once dominated from September through January, is gradually shifting into February. Rains that previously fell in June and July may arrive in March, and in a decade, we might see them in February,” he says.
These changes, he fears, will make winters drier, with higher temperatures and less rainfall.
Dr. Iqbal emphasises that these shifts, driven by climate change, have not only shortened winters but also thrown a wrench into ecosystems and livelihoods. “The cold that once defined our winters is on its last legs,” he adds.
Bagh, located in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, traditionally experiences substantial rainfall and snowfall during the winter months, which are crucial for replenishing natural water sources and ensuring a steady supply of drinking water throughout the year.
According to the metrological department, the district typically receives about 1,500 millimetres of precipitation annually, with one to three feet of snowfall common from December to mid-February.
However, this winter has been marked by a significant lack of substantial rain and snowfall, leading to a drought-like situation that has alarmed residents.
The absence of the usual precipitation has disrupted the natural replenishment of water sources, raising concerns about the availability of drinking water in the coming months.
Pakistan has seen a significant shortfall in rainfall, receiving less than 40 per cent of the usual precipitation. Between September 1, 2024, and January 15, 2025, Sindh recorded only 52 per cent of its average rainfall, Balochistan saw 45 per cent and Punjab received 42 per cent of the expected rainfall for the period. – Meteorological Department
Local residents, who rely on natural springs, streams, and wells for their daily water needs, are now walking on thin ice, as the absence of snowmelt threatens water sustainability.
Rashid Bilal, Deputy Director of Drought at the Meteorological Department Islamabad, explains that climate change has disrupted Pakistan’s rainfall patterns.
“Traditional winter rains, which typically began at the start of the season, have been delayed,” he says.
He adds that in recent years, winter rains would usually commence towards the end of December.
However, in 2024, this cycle shifted, with the first winter rains arriving in January. This year, the rains started in mid-February.
According to the Meteorological Department, Pakistan has seen a significant shortfall in rainfall, receiving less than 40 per cent of the usual precipitation.
Between September 1, 2024, and January 15, 2025, Sindh recorded only 52 per cent of its average rainfall, Balochistan saw 45 per cent and Punjab received 42 per cent of the expected rainfall for the period.
These observations from residents and experts alike highlight the profound impact of global climate change on Pakistan’s weather patterns.
While memories of harsh winters and abundant rainfall may fade, the urgent need for climate action has never been more pressing.
The clock is ticking and the time to act is now, before the consequences become irreversible.
