BERLIN, Germany: Exit polls indicate that opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is ahead in Germany’s national election, dealing a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is on track for its worst post-war result.
According to projections from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is also set to achieve its strongest performance in a national election since World War II.
Voting concluded at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday, with ballots now being counted. Initial exit polls released immediately after polls closed showed Merz’s CDU leading, though official results are expected early Monday.
The SPD, led by Scholz, is projected to finish in third place, a significant setback for the ruling coalition. Supporters at SPD headquarters reportedly fell silent as the exit poll results were announced.
Exit polls are based on surveys of voters who have just cast their ballots at hundreds of representative polling stations. They tend to be relatively accurate.
AfD sees unprecedented gains
The far-right AfD, known for its anti-immigration stance and Euroscepticism, is heading for its strongest showing in a federal election, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment.
The party’s performance follows a series of regional election successes in eastern Germany last year. The election saw a diverse range of voter motivations.
Germany’s election authority reported a voter turnout of 52% by 2 p.m. local time, significantly higher than the 36.5% recorded at the same time during the 2021 election, although that vote saw increased postal ballots due to COVID-19 restrictions.
Final turnout figures are expected to be strong, following the 76.4% recorded in the previous election.
JD Vance back far-right party
The US vice president has ruffled feathers for criticising European nations, including Germany, on what he said are rollbacks on free speech, lax migration policies and failures to spend enough on defence.
When it came to Germany, Vance this month criticised a consensus among mainstream political parties not to work with the far-right, anti-immigration AfD.
“Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There’s no room for firewalls,” Vance said.
He added that such policies prevent dialogue and broadly accused European leaders of working to silence the voices of those they disagreed with.
“Now, to many of us on the other side of the Atlantic, it looks more and more like old entrenched interests hiding behind ugly Soviet-era words like ‘misinformation’ and ‘disinformation’, who simply don’t like the idea that somebody with an alternative viewpoint might express a different opinion,” Vance said.
The US vice president met AfD leader Weidel but shunned Scholz. The German chancellor criticised Vance’s backing for the far right as “interference”.
What happens next?
While exit polls have a strong track record of accuracy, the final official result will be confirmed early Monday.
As vote counting progresses, the leading candidates, including Merz, Scholz, and other contenders such as Robert Habeck of the Greens and Alice Weidel of AfD, are expected to address their party supporters.
The outcome of this election will shape Germany’s political landscape, determining the next chancellor and the composition of the ruling coalition.
