BERLIN: Germany plans to halve its military aid for Ukraine in 2025, despite concerns over the possible return of Republican candidate Donald Trump to the White House, which could lead to a reduction in US support for Kyiv. According to the draft of the 2025 budget, Germany’s aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion), down from approximately 8 billion euros in 2024.
Germany is relying on the 50 billion dollars in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets agreed upon by the Group of Seven (G7) nations to help Ukraine meet its military needs. Officials hope that these funds, earmarked for armaments, will not be fully utilized. Washington has pushed for these loans to be “front-loaded,” providing Ukraine with a substantial lump sum now to avoid potential shortfalls if Trump returns to power.
This decision comes amid heightened concerns in Europe following Trump’s selection of Senator J.D. Vance, who opposes military aid for Ukraine, as his vice-presidential candidate. Vance’s stance has raised alarms about Europe’s reliance on the United States for defense, prompting EU leaders to support the G7’s loan initiative as a precautionary measure.
Trump has previously faced fierce criticism from Western officials for his remarks suggesting he would not defend countries that do not meet NATO’s defense spending targets, even going so far as to imply that he might encourage Russian aggression against them. Germany has been under scrutiny for consistently failing to meet NATO’s target of spending 2 percent of its GDP on defense.
Germany’s armed forces, already weakened by decades of underinvestment, have been further depleted by substantial arms supplies to Ukraine. So far, Berlin has provided Kyiv with three Patriot air defense units, more than any other country, reducing the number of these systems in Germany to nine.
Germany’s coalition government, comprising the left-leaning Social Democrats, pro-business liberals, and ecologist Greens, has struggled to meet NATO’s spending target due to self-imposed borrowing limits. Despite the planned reduction in military aid to Ukraine, Germany aims to comply with the 2 percent GDP defense spending target in 2025, with a total defense budget of 75.3 billion euros.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a “Zeitenwende” (historic turning point) with a special 100 billion euro fund to modernize the military. From this fund, 22 billion euros will be allocated to defense, in addition to 53.3 billion euros from the regular budget, although this still falls short of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’s request.
The 2025 budget also includes mid-term financial planning until 2028, when the special fund is expected to be depleted, requiring 80 billion euros for defense to meet NATO’s minimum spending goals. However, there is a projected 39 billion euro gap in the regular budget by 2028, with 28 billion euros needed to maintain compliance with NATO targets without the special fund.
