DAKAR, Senegal: Under the watchful eye of the international community, Senegal is preparing for a potentially tense presidential election.
The country is regarded as a bastion of stability in the coup-hit West Africa. No clear frontrunner has yet emerged in the February 25 election, with an unprecedented 20 candidates in the running including an imprisoned anti-establishment contender.
Fears of pre-election violence have not materialized, despite a turbulent candidate vetting process and the removal of prominent opposition figures Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade from the race. But the tension lasts only a few days before the official start of the campaign on February 4.
Prime Minister Amadou Ba believed that he will be elected in the first round on February 25. Ba was chosen by President Macky Sall as his successor after Sall announced in July last that he would not seek a third term — making this the first Senegalese election without an incumbent standing.
Analysts are of the view that neither Ba, a continuity candidate, nor any other of the hopefuls are guaranteed a place in the second round.
Stability, democracy
The final result is just one of the unknowns in closely watched elections at home and abroad. Senegal – home to about 18 million people – is among the 30 lowest ranked countries in the world according to the UN’s Human Development Index, but is due to start producing hydrocarbons this year.
Despite the growing trend in the surrounding region, Senegal has never experienced a military coup, leading Western powers to praise its stability, democracy and history of peaceful transfers of power.
However, since 2021, Senegal has witnessed often deadly unrest caused by a bitter feud between state and opposition tycoon Ousmane Sonko.
The violent episodes led to dozens of deaths and hundreds of arrests.
Human Rights Watch and others condemned Senegal’s crackdown on the opposition leaders, civil society and media – to which the government responded that “all freedoms are exercised without hindrance”.
Sall has maintained strong ties with the West at a time when Russia’s influence is growing in the Sahel and neighboring countries are battling jihadist insurgencies.
But he called for diversification of the partnership, saying Africa’s place as Europe’s “private turf” was over.
Imprisoned Bidder
Sonko’s pan-Africanist rhetoric and tough stance on former colonial power France also struck a chord with Senegal’s disaffected youth.
The 49-year-old, who came third in the 2019 presidential election, has been jailed since late July on a number of charges.
The Constitutional Council rejected his offer to run in the February elections, but together with his disbanded PASTEF party, he proposed a replacement candidate – Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
Faye is also detained, but his candidacy was approved by the authorities, making him the first imprisoned candidate to stand in Senegalese elections.
Analyst Sidy Diop listed Faye among the favorites to win, along with Amada Ba, Khalifa Sall and others.
However, according to him, the turbulence caused by the pro-Sonkov camp could discourage voters.
Amadou Ba praised incumbent Sall’s achievements in office but said he must “do even better and even faster”.
The massive infrastructure projects undertaken by the Sall government did not benefit everyone in society.
His successor would inherit the legacy of the last few difficult years of Sall’s presidency, marked by Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and the departure of tens of thousands of Senegalese to Europe.
Ba also faces significant challenges and rivals from his own camp.
