OSLO, Norway: In a world grappling with war in Ukraine, political coups across Africa, and escalating geopolitical tensions, the anticipation for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize is met with unprecedented uncertainty.
The Nobel season’s highlight, the Peace Prize, is scheduled to be announced in Oslo on Friday, yet the bleak state of global affairs has made it exceptionally challenging to predict potential laureates this year.
“The sad truth is that not a lot of peace is being made in the world in 2023,” remarked Dan Smith, the head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). He highlighted that there are now nearly twice as many wars as there were in 2010, painting a grim picture for the search for a peacemaker worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize this year.
Last year, amid the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to a symbolic trio comprising the Russian human rights group Memorial, Ukraine’s Center for Civil Liberties, and Belarusian rights advocate Ales Bialiatski—individuals and organizations from the nations at the center of the Ukraine war, standing against it.
Considering the geopolitical dynamics, the Nobel committee might decide to shift its focus to another region. Some experts point to Iranian women who expressed their dissent, even removing their hijabs, following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in Tehran last year. Alternatively, attention could turn to those fighting for women’s rights, particularly in countries where these rights are under threat.
Henrik Urdal, head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, expressed his desire to see the prize jointly awarded to jailed Iranian women’s rights campaigner Narges Mohammadi and her Afghan counterpart Mahbouba Seraj, both advocating for women’s access to politics and society.
Dan Smith of SIPRI suggested the Nobel Peace Prize could also highlight the pressing climate emergency. He proposed joint recognition for the Fridays for Future movement, founded by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, and Brazilian tribal chief Raoni Metuktire, a staunch campaigner against deforestation and an advocate for Indigenous rights.
Amidst global complexities, some are of the opinion that the Nobel Committee should refrain from awarding the prize this year, a rarity last seen in 1972. However, the committee is inclined against this idea, considering it an admission of failure, especially with 351 nominations received this year.
The Nobel Peace Prize nominations list remains sealed for 50 years, intensifying the guessing game. Thousands of eligible individuals worldwide, including members of parliament, cabinet ministers, former laureates, and university professors, can nominate candidates. The five Nobel Committee members can also submit nominations at their initial meeting of the year.
Among the potential contenders are organizations like the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR and international courts such as the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, which could draw attention to the issue of war crimes in Ukraine.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a favorite on betting sites, experts express doubts about awarding the Nobel to the leader of a country at war. Nobel historian Asle Sveen has suggested UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres as a potential laureate, highlighting the importance of promoting multilateralism, peace efforts, human rights, and climate and environmental work at a time when these causes face significant challenges.
In a world marked by turmoil, the Nobel Peace Prize remains a symbol of hope and recognition for those dedicated to building a more peaceful and just global community.
