News Desk
- Flood risks can be mitigated by restoring natural floodplains, improving drainage, moving population away from riverbanks: Study
- 2022 flood was triggered by pre-monsoon rainfall: Study
- Indus Plain in Pakistan experienced 19 flood disasters between 1950 and 2012: Study
ISLAMABAD: “The magnitude of multi-day consecutive rainfall events is likely to increase in southern Pakistan by 2099, making the catastrophic 2022 flood a forewarning of elevated future flood risks, according to a study published in a leading scientific journal.
Flood disasters
Published in Nature, the article comprehensively evaluates the complex interplay of pluvial (direct rainfall) and fluvial (riverine) conditions, upstream snow cover dynamics, and anthropogenic changes in the natural landscape that contributed to the unprecedented 2022 flooding, Dawn news reported.
“A significant proportion of these flood events were predominantly attributed to monsoon rainfall, with around 10 out of 20 occurrences taking place after the 2000s,” Dawn cited the study as saying.
The study reports that the Indus Plain in Pakistan experienced 19 flood disasters between 1950 and 2012, affecting an area of 599,459km².
“Historical average”
According to the study, after a multi-year drought, the pre-monsoon rainfall in 2022 was 111 per cent higher than the long-term average of 1951–2021, increasing soil moisture by 30 per cent in the Indus Basin floodplains.
The study found that the 2022 flood was triggered by pre-monsoon rainfall followed by an intensified monsoon system, adding that during the monsoon season (July-Sep), rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan surged to “between 600 and 1800mm, far exceeding historical average”.
The study revealed human activities were land use adjacent to riverine ecosystems, characterised by intensive agricultural practices and high population density along riverbanks.
Another factor that contributed to these floods was the accelerated upstream snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, according to the study.
By end of the century
Dawn News cited the authors of the study as saying flooding risks in Pakistan could “increase dramatically” under a high-emission scenario, with intense rainfall events, especially 5-day extreme rainfall events in southern Pakistan projected to become “more common and stronger by the end of the century up to 58pc”.
The paper said Pakistan could focus on adaptation to mitigate these risks, such as restoring natural floodplains, improving drainage, and shifting development away from riverbanks.
“Pakistan cannot solve global warming alone, but local emission reductions combined with smarter land planning can reduce damage and save lives,” the study said.
